Futures Seminar

by team Pacific Warrior: LTC Lee Hemming (USMC), LTC Randy Paul Lefebvre, LTC Matthew "Kip" Marsh, COL John Cletus Paumier (USAR), Pratya "Lek" Siriwat; Publication by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication examines the impact of the Russo-Ukranian conflict on China’s military strategies, particularly concerning Taiwan. It highlights the increased risks of forced unification and the need for China to improve join training, doctrine, and modernization efforts. The report suggests that China is likely to draw lessons from Russia’s operational failures, focusing on enhancing its military capabilities while considering economic insulation from potential sanctions. Overall, the analysis provides insights into how the conflict might influence China’s approach to Taiwan, emphasizing strategic caution and calculated planning.

by BioThreat Forge: COL Dan Mitchell, COL Laura Porter, LTC Matt Rasmussen, LTC Timothy Harloff, and LTC Justin De Armond; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In Biothreat Assessment 2035, the student team BioThreat Forge examines the evolving landscape of biotechnology and its potential threats to U.S. national security by 2035. The report identifies key trends, including the convergence of digital technology and biotechnology, which may enable non-state actors and adversarial nations to exploit biological capabilities, posing significant risks to public health, infrastructure, and military operations.

by LTC Lee Hemming (USMC), LTC Randy Paul Lefebvre, LTC Matthew "Kip" Marsh, COL John Cletus Paumier (USAR), Pratya "Lek" Siriwat; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; China’s Use of Landpower for Unification of Taiwan delves into China’s multifaceted strategy to unify Taiwan by 2049 through the lens of landpower. The document outlines three main strategies: unification by maneuver, leveraging geopolitical and economic influence to isolate Taiwan; unification by fires, preparing for potential military aggression; and unification by mistake, exploiting missteps by Taiwan or its allies. Each strategy reflects China’s long-term vision and military modernization efforts, emphasizing strategic patience and the use of time as a domain to achieve its objectives without immediate conflict.

by COL Troy Alexander, COL Greg Pavlichko, COL Anthony Pollio, LTC Patrick Hofmann, LTC Nicky Shadley; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores the transformative potential of Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) and trust-enabling technologies by 2037, emphasizing their role in enhancing dynamic information sharing within Mission Partner Environments (MPE) amidst trust asymmetries. It outlines critical advancements in areas such as fully homomorphic encryption, culturally sensitive mixed reality, and augmented intelligence, which collectively aim to revoluntionize military operations and inter-agency collaboration through improved data security, real-time communication, and decision-making capabilities.

Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In this comprehensive analysis, a team of U.S. Army War College students examines China’s strategic ambitions to become the world’s dominant power by 2049. The report delves into China’s multifaceted approach, highlighting its focus on economic growth, regional hegemony, and global influence through technological advancements and strategic partnerships. Despite China’s progress, the report identifies significant challenges, including internal security issues, economic vulnerabilities, and geopolitical tensions, which could impede its path to global supremacy. The study underscores the implications for the United States and its allies, emphasizing the need for strategic preparedness in response to China’s evolving global strategy.

by COL Johnny Casiano , Mrs. Jo Dempsey, Mr. Gregory Lynch, LTC Andy Pannier, and COL William Snook; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In “The Convergence of ‘Exciting’ Technology Between 2030 and 2040,” the Concept Squad, a small team of U.S. Army War College students, examines 17 transformative technologies poised to reshape military capabilities and national security strategies within the next two decades. Highlighting innovations such as optogenetics, neural lace, and quantum radars, the publication underscores the critical need for the U.S. military to adapt to these advancements in the face of increasing competition from near-peer adversities.

James M. Mitchell, James A. Kievit, Kirk J. Junker, Patrick J. Malone, Leslie L. Semrau; Publication by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; The U.S. Army War College student team “Indovino Nefario” analyzes the future force design approaches of China and Russia, emphasizing that both nations are likely to adopt policy-driven and competition-centric strategies rather than traditional doctrinal frameworks. The report highlights that while China focuses on integrating military and economic strategies through its Military Civil Fusion policy, Russia is expected to prioritize asymmetric capabilities and modernization of its conventional forces to maintain deterrence amid economic constraints, with both nations aiming to mitigate risks associated with armed conflict in 2035.

COL Joseph Sheridan (USA), Ms. Bernice Parkhill (USA), COL Gregory Frazier (USAR), COL Jason Seery (USA), LTC Matt Williams (USAR); Report from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In this report, the authors explore how emerging technologies are poised to transform military intelligence operations. The report identifies key technologies such as quantum computing, 5G and 6G communications, machine learning, and advanced sensors that are expected to enhance the capabilities of intelligence analysts. These advancements will enable analysts to process vast amounts of data more efficiently and make informed decisions in complex environments. However, the report emphasizes the continued necessity of human oversight to navigate the areas where technology falls short, ensuring that the integration of these technologies supports rather than replaces human judgement in military intelligence operations.

by Lt Col Nicholas Delcour (USAF), Lt Col Louis Duncan (USAF), Mr Stephen Frahm (DOS), CDR Patrick Lancaster (USN), Lt Col Lance Vann (USAF). Under the Direction of: Prof Kristan Wheaton; Publication by Estimation of Technology Convergence by 2035 This comprehensive analysis from students at the U.S. Army War College’s Futures Seminar explores the anticipated convergence of various technologies – including artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum technology – by 2035, highlighting their potential military applications and implications for national security. The authors, a diverse team of military and government professionals, utilize structured analytic techniques to project significant technological advancements and their synergistic effects, emphasizing the critical need for strategic foresight in military planning and operations.