Futures Seminar

by COL Johnny Casiano , Mrs. Jo Dempsey, Mr. Gregory Lynch, LTC Andy Pannier, and COL William Snook; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In “The Convergence of ‘Exciting’ Technology Between 2030 and 2040,” the Concept Squad, a small team of U.S. Army War College students, examines 17 transformative technologies poised to reshape military capabilities and national security strategies within the next two decades. Highlighting innovations such as optogenetics, neural lace, and quantum radars, the publication underscores the critical need for the U.S. military to adapt to these advancements in the face of increasing competition from near-peer adversities.

James M. Mitchell, James A. Kievit, Kirk J. Junker, Patrick J. Malone, Leslie L. Semrau; Publication by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; The U.S. Army War College student team “Indovino Nefario” analyzes the future force design approaches of China and Russia, emphasizing that both nations are likely to adopt policy-driven and competition-centric strategies rather than traditional doctrinal frameworks. The report highlights that while China focuses on integrating military and economic strategies through its Military Civil Fusion policy, Russia is expected to prioritize asymmetric capabilities and modernization of its conventional forces to maintain deterrence amid economic constraints, with both nations aiming to mitigate risks associated with armed conflict in 2035.

COL Joseph Sheridan (USA), Ms. Bernice Parkhill (USA), COL Gregory Frazier (USAR), COL Jason Seery (USA), LTC Matt Williams (USAR); Report from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In this report, the authors explore how emerging technologies are poised to transform military intelligence operations. The report identifies key technologies such as quantum computing, 5G and 6G communications, machine learning, and advanced sensors that are expected to enhance the capabilities of intelligence analysts. These advancements will enable analysts to process vast amounts of data more efficiently and make informed decisions in complex environments. However, the report emphasizes the continued necessity of human oversight to navigate the areas where technology falls short, ensuring that the integration of these technologies supports rather than replaces human judgement in military intelligence operations.

by Lt Col Nicholas Delcour (USAF), Lt Col Louis Duncan (USAF), Mr Stephen Frahm (DOS), CDR Patrick Lancaster (USN), Lt Col Lance Vann (USAF). Under the Direction of: Prof Kristan Wheaton; Publication by Estimation of Technology Convergence by 2035 This comprehensive analysis from students at the U.S. Army War College’s Futures Seminar explores the anticipated convergence of various technologies – including artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum technology – by 2035, highlighting their potential military applications and implications for national security. The authors, a diverse team of military and government professionals, utilize structured analytic techniques to project significant technological advancements and their synergistic effects, emphasizing the critical need for strategic foresight in military planning and operations.

Vincent A. Amerena Sr., Steven M. Clark, Andrew L. Heymann, Martin D. Lepak, John A. Urciuoli; Document from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This document outlines a strategic framework for evolving the Army’s talent management approach to meet future demands. It identifies 12 critical elements necessary for a talent-based system, emphasizing the importance of a self-learning system, visibility of the total force, and expandable access to personnel across the Department of Defense. Additionally, the report addresses procedural and cultural impediments that could hinder the implementation of an agile system, such as mobile access to the talent marketplace and military compensation challenges. The report serves as a blueprint for transforming Army personnel management to align with emerging workforce trends and operational needs by 2035.

Ashraf S. Abdelhak, Jerry A. Brown, Rafael A. Duran, Russell V. Hoff, Samuel P. Smith; Document from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This document meticulously evaluates the modernization plans and defense strategies of key global players, including China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, identifying 19 capabilities and 22 unique threat signatures that will likely evolve. The report emphasizes the necessity for the U.S. Army to develop sophisticated, integrated sensor systems capable of detecting both technical and non-technical signatures, as adversaries increasingly employ advanced technologies such as electronic warfare, cyber capabilities, and stealth to obscure their actions. As global powers continue to enhance their military capabilities, this analysis serves as a crucial guide for maintaining strategic superiority and ensuring national security.

Likely Threat Signatures 2030-2040 Ashraf Abdelhak, Jerry Brown, Rafael Duran, Russell Hoff, Samuel Smith Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The USAWC Futures Seminar Team Sensing prepared this document for the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Army, G2 (Intelligence). The research, analysis, and production of this product occurred over a 28 week time frame from Oct 2019 to Apr 2020 at the USAWC. The research requirement was: What are likely future threat signatures in 2030-2040? What sensors and systems will the U.S. Army likely need in order to detect, recognize, analyze, and target future threat signatures?"

Talent Management After Next - Evolution of the People Strategy Vincent A. Amerena Sr. Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "This document was written by a research team at the USAWC as a part of the Futures Seminar for AY 2020. This report answers questions posed by Dr. Casey Wardynski, Asst. Sec. of the Army for Manpower and Reserve Affairs (ASA M&RA). The team's task was to analyze and synthesize an estimate from open-source information relevant to the questions posed: What are the elements of a talent-based approach to Army personnel management that will reveal market requirements while meeting Army demands in relative real-time and provide feedback through a self-learning system? Additionally, what procedural and cultural impediments likely stand in the way of an agile system that allows the Army to adapt to these new demands through acquisition avenues or modifications to the development of the Army's existing talent?"

Futures Seminar 2019 - What Kind of Army does the Nation Need in 2025 and Beyond Samuel R. White, Jr. Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "From a national security perspective, war remains fundamentally political, people-centric, and complex.16 These three aspects, along with violence and coercion, have been essential aspects of conflict since the dawn of recorded history. As we explore what the operational environment of the future will look like, modern security practitioners argue that this nature of warfare does not change; even with technological advances the role of leaders in the organizing and motivating human capital will remain the same..."