Futures Seminar

by COL Byron Cadiz, COL T. Marc Skinner, LTC Robert Mayhue, LTC Lori Perkins, LTC Shun Yu. This report, produced by US Army War College Futures research team Axis Insight 2035, represents eight months of rigorous research from October 2024 to May 2025 to answer Mr. Ian Sullivan, TRADOC G2’s pivotal question: How will China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea react to U.S.-led deterrence efforts by 2035? By 2035, it is almost certain that China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea will respond to US deterrence with entanglement, disruptive technology, and persistent coercion. The global landscape is rapidly transforming, characterized by increasing complexity and challenges to U.S. influence. This seismic shift is marked by two key findings, the first encompassed in three threat vectors: 1) an entangled future of situational cooperation and transactional interdependence among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea which amplifies deterrence challenges; 2) disruptive technology by which the U.S. advantages are severely threatened or lost to adversarial emerging technologies; and 3) persistent coercion consisting of the expansion and exploitation of gray zone activities in which aggression below the level of armed conflict bypasses traditional deterrence. Collectively, these developments forecast that U.S. deterrence is at risk of becoming strategically irrelevant without integrated, adaptive responses across all instruments of power.

by COL Joseph Gilbert, COL Matthew Miller, COL Christopher Ronald, LTC Benverren Fortune, LTC Steve Kwon. This report, produced by Team POETIC at the United States Army War College over 28 weeks from October 2024 through May 2025, addresses a critical strategic question posed by the Headquarters, Department of the Army, G2: What will the future of collaboration among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea likely look like over the next 10-15 years? Based on analysis of over 1,077 sources and interviews with subject matter experts, the study concludes that military, economic, and technological collaboration among these four nations is very likely (80-95%) to deepen but remain transactional, asymmetric, and opportunistic rather than forming a formal alliance. China emerges as the dominant force within this bloc, leveraging its economic strength and digital infrastructure exports to create asymmetric dependencies, while Russia, Iran, and North Korea provide complementary military-industrial assets, energy exports, and cyber capabilities. The research reveals that while these nations will likely strengthen cooperation through sanctions-resistant trade practices, dual-use technology sharing, and selective capability exchanges, internal mistrust, divergent priorities, and asymmetric capabilities will limit their global influence to regional theaters rather than creating a unified geopolitical front capable of fundamentally challenging the Western-led international order.

by COL Bradley Tibbetts, LTC Terrell Lawson, LTC William Hall, LTC Kale Sawyer, LTC Colin Gandy. This report, produced by the Irregular Advantage Initiative at the United States Army War College from October 2024 to May 2025, addresses Major General Shawn R. Satterfield's (SOCOM J7) critical question: what opportunities will emerge in the next 15-20 years to allow special operations forces to enable expanded maneuver of the Joint Force in Large-Scale Combat Operations? Through analysis of over 375 sources, the research team identified sixteen technological and operational opportunities organized into three key "Maneuver Accelerators": Unconventional Acquisition (leveraging shadow supply chains, additive manufacturing, and unmanned systems), Distributed Autonomous Organizations (using blockchain-enabled networks for decentralized operations), and Heutagogy with Human-Machine Integration (combining adaptive learning with cognitive enhancements). The report concludes that future SOF operators will transition from primarily physical-prowess-based forces to adaptable, technology-integrated teams capable of operating in contested environments, exploiting adversary dependencies while rapidly cycling between high and low-technology methods to enable Joint Force maneuver in an increasingly transparent and AI-dominated battlefield.

by COL Brian Wong, Col Mark Hannigan, LTC Sarah Easter Strayer, LTC Benjamin Stegmann, LTC Joe Hales. The U.S. military healthcare system faces fundamental transformation over the next 15 years as artificial intelligence, autonomous robotics, and emerging technologies reshape workforce composition and care delivery. This report, produced by Project MedEvX at the United States Army War College from October 2024 to May 2025, addresses U.S. Army Surgeon General LTG Mary K. Izaguirre's strategic question: Given the potential for Large-Scale Combat Operations, what human capital dynamics will likely shape military healthcare through 2040? The research reveals that human-level AI and autonomous systems will join medical rounds, electronic health records will achieve interoperability "without borders," AI-driven genomic mapping will revolutionize talent selection, and healthcare delivery will "decentralize to survive" through distributed autonomous organizations enabled by predictive logistics and remote surgery. This technocentric revolution presents opportunities for enhanced patient outcomes while creating significant challenges in workforce adaptation, cybersecurity, and ethical implementation that require military medicine to fundamentally reimagine its approach to training and human capital management.

by Mr. Benjamin Bahoque, COL David Taylor, COL Michael Smith, COL Kurt McDowell, LTC Katie Enochs. The U.S. military stands at a pivotal juncture, tasked with sustaining its maneuver warfare advantage through 2040 amidst rapid technological advancements, evolving geopolitical dynamics, and an increasingly complex multi-domain operational environment. This report, produced by a Futures Seminar Research Team at the United States Army War College, represents eight months of rigorous research from October 2024 to May 2025, addressing the Joint Staff J7 Lt Gen Anderson’s critical question: How can the U.S. military innovate to maintain its maneuver warfare advantage through 2040? Drawing on open-source documents and employing structured analytic techniques such as the Nominal Group Technique, Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Process, Alternative Competing Hypotheses, and the Millhone Method, the report achieves moderate analytic confidence given the complexities of forecasting over a 15-year horizon. Five key findings anchor the analysis: the imperative of an elastic mindset, the centrality of rapid adaptation, the transformative potential of emerging technologies, the necessity of a unified innovation ecosystem, and the need for talent management reform. These findings collectively chart a strategic path to ensure the U.S. military remains agile, predictive, and dominant in an era of unprecedented disruption.

by COL Doug Simmons, LtCol Kelly Raisch, LTC Krista Gueller, LTC Noel Chun, LTC Mike McCray Report by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership This comprehensive report analyzes the interplay between historical military innovations and future defense strategies, emphasizing the necessity of a dynamic Defense Innovation Ecosystem to maintain military superiority in the face of emerging global challenges. It explores critical factors such as strategic vision, cultural adaptability, and the integration of disruptive technologies, providing valuable insights for shaping effective military doctrines and enhancing the U.S. military’s readiness for future conflicts.

By Team Ergo Sum Machina: Mr. Tom Jackson, COL Robert Richardson , LTC Katherine Ogletree, LTC Charles Moss, and CDR Robert Liberato; Strategic Research Project by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This study explores how adversaries my weaponize artificial intelligence-generated content (AIGC) for deception and manipulation in the psycho-cognitive domain through 2033, examining likely effects, implications, and necessary countermeasures. The research, conducted by the U.S. Army War College student team “Ergo Sum Machina”, concludes that adversaries will almost certainly exploit AIGC through psycho-cognitive and machine-level vectors, while mitigation efforts will likely be unevenly applied, leaving persistent vulnerabilities in epistemic agency, cyber infrastructure, and synthetic data.

by COL Erin H. Frazier (USA), COL Robert F. Jordan (USA), Lt Col Joseph G. Dolce (USAF), LTC Tyler J. Waterhouse (USAR), LTC Allan S. Jackman (USA), Under the direction of Professor Kristan J. Wheaton; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This is a report that outlines the transformative potential of human-machine integration (HMI) in military operations over the next two decades. It emphasizes the need for comprehensive changes across the DOTMLPF-P framework (Doctrine, organization, training, material, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy) to maintain a competitive edge in future conflicts. The report identifies key areas of impact, including command and maneuver, ethical AI-enhanced decision-making, and future-proofing military capabilities, highlighting the integration of advanced technologies such as brain0computer interfaces and augmented reality. Ethical considerations and the development of a technologically proficient military workforce are underscored as crucial elements of this evolution.

COL Mike Flury, COL Andi Tallman, LTC Troy Johnson, LTC Nick Panepinto, LTC Patrick Ryan; Publication from US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; China’s Strategic Blueprint: Creating a Multipolar World Through 2035 is a comprehensive analysis exploring China’s strategic ambitions to establish a China-led international order by 2035. The report delves into China’s likely use of hybrid warfare tactics, including economic and cyber warfare, to challenge the current U.S.-led global norms. It also examines China’s strategic partnerships, particularly with Russia, and its initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, which aim to expand its influence without forming traditional military alliances, reflecting China’s preference for flexible partnerships over rigid alliances.