Futures Seminar

by COL Doug Simmons, LtCol Kelly Raisch, LTC Krista Gueller, LTC Noel Chun, LTC Mike McCray Report by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership This comprehensive report analyzes the interplay between historical military innovations and future defense strategies, emphasizing the necessity of a dynamic Defense Innovation Ecosystem to maintain military superiority in the face of emerging global challenges. It explores critical factors such as strategic vision, cultural adaptability, and the integration of disruptive technologies, providing valuable insights for shaping effective military doctrines and enhancing the U.S. military’s readiness for future conflicts.

By Team Ergo Sum Machina: Mr. Tom Jackson, COL Robert Richardson , LTC Katherine Ogletree, LTC Charles Moss, and CDR Robert Liberato; Strategic Research Project by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This study explores how adversaries my weaponize artificial intelligence-generated content (AIGC) for deception and manipulation in the psycho-cognitive domain through 2033, examining likely effects, implications, and necessary countermeasures. The research, conducted by the U.S. Army War College student team “Ergo Sum Machina”, concludes that adversaries will almost certainly exploit AIGC through psycho-cognitive and machine-level vectors, while mitigation efforts will likely be unevenly applied, leaving persistent vulnerabilities in epistemic agency, cyber infrastructure, and synthetic data.

by COL Erin H. Frazier (USA), COL Robert F. Jordan (USA), Lt Col Joseph G. Dolce (USAF), LTC Tyler J. Waterhouse (USAR), LTC Allan S. Jackman (USA), Under the direction of Professor Kristan J. Wheaton; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This is a report that outlines the transformative potential of human-machine integration (HMI) in military operations over the next two decades. It emphasizes the need for comprehensive changes across the DOTMLPF-P framework (Doctrine, organization, training, material, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy) to maintain a competitive edge in future conflicts. The report identifies key areas of impact, including command and maneuver, ethical AI-enhanced decision-making, and future-proofing military capabilities, highlighting the integration of advanced technologies such as brain0computer interfaces and augmented reality. Ethical considerations and the development of a technologically proficient military workforce are underscored as crucial elements of this evolution.

COL Mike Flury, COL Andi Tallman, LTC Troy Johnson, LTC Nick Panepinto, LTC Patrick Ryan; Publication from US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; China’s Strategic Blueprint: Creating a Multipolar World Through 2035 is a comprehensive analysis exploring China’s strategic ambitions to establish a China-led international order by 2035. The report delves into China’s likely use of hybrid warfare tactics, including economic and cyber warfare, to challenge the current U.S.-led global norms. It also examines China’s strategic partnerships, particularly with Russia, and its initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, which aim to expand its influence without forming traditional military alliances, reflecting China’s preference for flexible partnerships over rigid alliances.

LTC Joseph “Joe” Bell (USA, Aviation), COL John Cooper (USA, Human Resources), LTC Kristine “Kris” Hinds (USAR, Logistics), LtCol Erik Keim (USMC, Communications), LTC Michael “Neal” Miller (USAR, Logistics), Faculty Advisor: Dr. Kathleen Moore; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores how contemporary conflicts shape future warfare by integrating diverse actors and technologies. The report emphasizes the increasing role of technology in warfare, highlighting the integration of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) advancements, rapid technological implementation, and the involvement of private sectors. It predicts that by 2035, warfare will be characterized by unprecedented visibility, rapid technological advancements, and lower barriers to entry, making everyone a potential player and everything a target in a “conflict-in-a-sandbox” environment. This evolution necessitates adapting strategies and enhancing collaboration among military and non-military entities to address emerging threats and vulnerabilities effectively.

COL Luke Clover, COL Stacy Moore-Callaway, COL Erik Oksenvaag, LTC John Oliver, LTC Eric Soler; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores the potential transition of the U.S. Army to electrification and carbon neutrality by 2035, identifying key technologies, challenges, and recommendations. It highlights the likelihood of emerging capabilities in redundant power generation, assured energy, and smart tech synergy, which are expected to support this transition despite obstacles like supply chain issues and infrastructure costs. The document emphasizes the importance of public-private partnerships, advancements in energy storage, and the integration of smart technologies to achieve a sustainable and resilient military force.

LTC Jeffrey Paulus, LTC Michael Gourgues, COL Argot Carberry, LTC Nicholas Milkovich, LTC Scott Henrickson; Strategic Assessment from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This comprehensive strategic assessment, conducted by the U.S. Army War College student team Terra Certamine, explores China’s perspective on U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific region and forecasts Beijing’s potential strategies to destabilize these relationships by 2035. The analysis indicates that China perceives U.S. alliances as destabilizing and unreliable, and is likely to leverage economic cooperation and infrastructure investments through initiatives like the Belt and Road to counter U.S. influence. The report also highlights China’s ambition to establish strongpoints in strategic maritime chokepoints and expand its military presence to secure its interests and counter U.S. regional dominance.

by COL Nora Flott, COL Derek Baird, LTC(P) Tyler Standish, LTC(P) Brandon Van Orden, and LTC James Esquivel; Publication by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; An exploration of how the next generation of intelligence analysts, particularly those aged 18-22, are reshaping information consumption and communication through their reliance on digital platforms and AI technologies. With emphasis on the idea that while these digital natives are likely to enhance their critical thinking skills, their communication preferences will evolve towards more visual and interactive formats, significantly impacting the intelligence landscape of 2040.

by COL Leslie Carlson, LTC Fidel Arvelo, LTC Phillip Cain, LTC Samuel Meyer, and Lt Col Dorian Hatcher; Report by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This comprehensive report, authored by the student team Techno-Warfare Group, examines the integration of emerging technologies such as quantum computing, advanced AI, and autonomous systems, forecasting their transformative impact on military strategy and the skillsets leaders will require to dominate in this new era of conflict.