Regional Issues

The Struggle for Yemen and the Challenge of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Dr. Terrill uses this monograph to explore how Yemen’s “Arab Spring” uprising paralyzed that country’s government and shattered its military into hostile factions for over a year beginning in early 2011. This prolonged crisis prevented Yemen’s government, under President Ali Abdullah Saleh, from doing much more than attempting to survive. Saleh used those military units that remained loyal to him for regime protection against anti-government demonstrators and troops who defected to those demonstrators. The uprising subsequently led to a security vacuum that helped allow AQAP and its insurgent force, Ansar al-Shariah, to expand their activities beyond terrorism due to the government’s preoccupation with the Arab Spring. Although AQAP and the Arab Spring demonstrators felt no kinship towards each other, AQAP was more than willing to take advantage of the disorder produced by the uprising. In this new security environment, the militants were able to seize and hold significant amounts of territory in southern Yemen. Despite this focus on capturing territory, Dr. Terrill also notes that AQAP has remained interested in striking at U.S. interests in Yemen and especially in implementing spectacular acts of terrorism against the U.S. homeland. "

War, Law and Order, Case Study: Australian Whole-of-Government COL Marcus Fielding PKSOI Paper by US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "This paper begins with a description of an Australian Special Forces raid in Afghanistan where civilians were killed and wounded. The subsequent White Paper prompted several questions...To answer these questions, this paper examines how the Australian Government can assist another state government to restore and maintain public security by developing capacity in its security and criminal justice sectors."

The Conflicts in Yemen and U.S. National Security Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Yemen is not currently a failed state, but it is experiencing huge political and economic problems that can have a direct impact on U.S. interests in the region. It has a rapidly expanding population with a resource base that is limited and already leaves much of the current population in poverty. The government obtains around a third of its budget revenue from sales of its limited and declining oil stocks, which most economists state will be exhausted by 2017. Yemen has critical water shortages aggravated by the use of extensive amounts of water and agricultural land for production of the shrub qat, which is chewed for stimulant and other effects but has no nutritional value. All of these problems are especially difficult to address because the central government has only limited capacity to extend its influence into tribal areas beyond the capital and major cities..."

The Coming of Chinese Hawks Dr David Lai Op-ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "A new feature in U.S.-China relations is taking shape these days—it is the Chinese hawkish take on controversial issues between the two nations. The most recent Chinese objections stem from U.S. joint military exercises with South Korea and Vietnam in the East and South China Seas. The joint U.S.-South Korea military exercise was unmistakably intended to put North Korea on notice for its putative sinking of a South Korean warship in March 2010; the U.S.-Vietnam joint naval exercise was to commemorate the 15th anniversary of the normalization of relationships between the two countries. However, the Chinese interpreted both military exercises as a U.S. show of force directed toward China."

Candidly, One Friend to Another Dr Antulio J Echevarria II Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The Transatlantic Partnership between the United States and the United Kingdom has remained viable for the better part of a century. During that time it weathered assorted and sometimes severe storms—from trials over nuclear armament in the late 1940s, to the Suez crisis of the 1950s, to the Balkan conflicts of the 1990s, and to today’s extensive and costly counterinsurgency campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan. Indeed, one could well say that the long-standing partnership between the U.S. and UK has been what Prime Minister David Cameron recently, and aptly, described as “the candid friend, the best friend” relationship. Advice offered by one partner to the other has always been refreshingly frank, even if it has been at times difficult to hear, and to heed."

Wanted: A Strategy for the Black Sea Dr Stephen J Blank Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "There exists an extensive literature on the strategic importance of the Black Sea zone. Yet it is difficult to discern whether U.S. policymakers are pursuing a coherent strategy for this crucial region. Although Kyrgyzstan is in Central Asia, an adjoining region, events there are symptomatic of this strategic challenge. Not only did our embassy in Kyrgyzstan repeat the mistake the United States made in Iran by being excessively attached to the reigning government and insufficiently attuned to other opposing sociopolitical groups, its actions during the April 2009 upheaval were inadequate, even though it had forewarning of that event."

Something Brewing in Venezuela COL Phillip R Cuccia Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Addressing a regional diplomatic-military problem is made all the more complicated when the region is not at the forefront of U.S. global strategic interests. Such a region simply does not get the attention that it deserves. I fear that may be what is happening now with South America in general and Venezuela in particular."

Resetting the Reset Button: Realism About Russia Dr Stephen J Blank Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In Washington, there is a widely shared view that the United States needs Russian cooperation to stop Iranian and North Korean nuclear proliferation, particularly Iran’s. This view rests on the premise that the United States should take Russia “seriously,” and taking Russia seriously means accepting Russian demands for no missile defense in Europe and no NATO enlargement or further European integration of the countries of the former Soviet Union."

Russian Elite Image of Iran: From the Late Soviet Era to the Present Dr Dmitry Shlapentokh Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Since the late Soviet era, the presence of Iran has loomed large in the minds of the Russian elite. Their vision of Iran has been incorporated in the general view of the Russian relationship with the Muslim world. Soon after the end of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR)—and even before—increasing numbers of Russian intellectuals became disenchanted with the West, especially the United States, and looked for alternative geopolitical alliances. The Muslim world, with Iran at the center, became one of the possible alternatives. "