Western Hemisphere

After Fidel, The Deluge? Dr Alex Crowther Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "As Louis XV allegedly said, “Apres moi, le deluge.” Certainly people have thought that Cuba after Fidel would be the same. How would a Cuban state that revolves around him survive his departure? How would a government where no decision is too small for his attention function? How would the generations who have known no one other than the “Maximo Lider” handle the change? Luckily for the Cuban government, the answer is—there will be almost no change in the near future. No deluge, just a drizzle."

The Political Context Behind Successful Revolutionary Movements, Three Case Studies: Vietnam (1955-63), Algeria (1945-62), and Nicaragua (1967-79) LTC Raymond A Millen Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Lieutenant Colonel Raymond Millen examines the extent to which some states create the conditions for revolutionary movements to flourish. Employing Jeff Goodwin’s analytical framework for exploring the political context behind revolutionary movements, Lieutenant Colonel Millen explores how the governments in Vietnam (1955-63), Algeria (1945-62), and Nicaragua (1967-79) unintentionally empowered revolutionary movements, resulting in these governments’ demise. He supplements Goodwin’s framework by including an examination of the insurgent leadership’s political-military acumen. "

A Contemporary Challenge to State Sovereignty: Gangs and Other Illicit Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs) in Central America, El Salvador, Mexico, Jamaica, and Brazil Dr Max G Manwaring Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Another kind of war within the context of a “clash of civilizations” is being waged in various parts of the Americas, Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and elsewhere around the world. Some of the main protagonists are those who have come to be designated as first-, second-, and third-generation street gangs, as well as their various possible allies such as traditional Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs). In this new type of war, national security and sovereignty of affected countries is being impinged every day, and gangs’ illicit commercial motives are, in fact, becoming an ominous political agenda."

The Reserve Policies of Nations: A Comparative Analysis Dr Richard Weitz Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "While the American defense community has naturally been preoccupied with the extensive transformation of the U.S. reserve components in recent years, equally critical developments in the reserve policies of the world’s other major military powers have received less attention. The inevitability of continued American engagement with these countries means that their changing policies are highly relevant to the United States. American defense planners should therefore keep abreast of ongoing alterations in these countries’ reserve components and, in certain cases, might wish to adjust their own forces and policies in response."

China's Expansion into and U.S. Withdrawal from Argentina's Telecommunications and Space Industries and the Implications for U.S. National Security Ms Janie Hulse Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The U.S. Government is waking up to China’s growing presence in Latin America. For the last several years as U.S. policymakers’ attention and resources, largely diverted from Latin America, have been focused on the Middle East, China has pursued a policy of economic engagement with the region. Sino-Latin American trade has sky-rocketed, and Chinese investment in the region is picking up. In this monograph, Ms. Janie Hulse, a Latin American specialist based in Buenos Aires, Argentina, argues that increased Chinese investment in regional telecommunications and space industries has implications for U.S. national security. She believes that globalization, advances in information technology and China’s growing capacity and interest in information warfare make the United States particularly vulnerable. Ms. Hulse details China’s expansion into and U.S. withdrawal from these intelligence-related industries in Argentina and highlights associated risks for the United States. The author calls for the U.S. Government to react to this current trend by increasing its engagement in regional strategic industries and bettering relationships with its southern neighbors."

American Grand Strategy for Latin America in the Age of Resentment Dr Gabriel Marcella Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The fear that extra-hemispheric powers would strategically deny Latin America as a friend of the United States has animated American statesmen since the 19th century. Such fear certainly pervaded the Cold war competition. Today the challenge to the security and well-being of Latin America is neither ideological, nor military, nor external. Strategic denial is more likely to come about from a highly combustible blend of poverty, crime, despair, corruption, resentment, and antidemocratic sentiments that promise a vague 21st century socialism under new authoritarian clothing. The sentiments are sinking deep roots in the socio-political landscape, and they are profoundly anti-American. "

Security Requirements for Post-Transition Cuba Dr Alex Crowther Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The transfer of power from Fidel Castro to his brother, Raul, in August 2006 prompted the Economist to declare “the beginning of the end of the Castro era.” Although no one knows when Fidel will finally pass on the reins of power, the time is approaching. Another unknown is the type of handoff. Fidel could be succeeded by another communist regime, or there could be a transition to a different type of regime. The worst case scenario would find Cuba descending into chaos if no one could replicate Fidel’s ability to hold Cuba together."

Latin America's New Security Reality: Irregular Asymmetric Conflict and Hugo Chavez Dr Max G Manwaring Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Since his election as President of Venezuela in 1998, Hugo Chavez has encouraged and continues to encourage his Venezuelan and other Latin American followers to pursue a confrontational “defensive,” populist, and nationalistic agenda that will supposedly liberate Latin America from the economic dependency and the political imperialism of the North American “Colossus” (the United States). Chavez argues that liberation, New Socialism, and Bolivarianismo (the dream of a Latin American Liberation Movement against U.S. hegemony) will only be achieved by (1) radically changing the traditional politics of the Venezuelan state to that of “direct” (totalitarian) democracy; (2) destroying North American hegemony throughout all of Latin America by (3) conducting an irregular and asymmetric “Super Insurgency,” or “Fourth-Generation Warfare” to depose the illegitimate external enemy; and, 4) building a new Bolivarian state, beginning with Venezuela and extending to the whole of Latin America."

North Korean Foreign Relations in the Post-Cold War World Dr Samuel S Kim Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Dr. Samuel Kim examines North Korea’s foreign relations with China, Russia, Japan, the United States, and South Korea during the post-Cold War era. He argues that central to understanding North Korea’s international behavior in the 21st century is the extent to which the policies of the United States have shaped that behavior. Although some readers may not agree with all of Dr. Kim’s interpretations and assessments, they nevertheless will find his analysis simulating and extremely informative."