Western Hemisphere

Crime, Violence, and the Crisis in Guatemala: A Case Study in the Erosion of the State Dr Hal Brands Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In numerous Latin American countries, organized crime and violence are corroding governance and imperiling democratic legitimacy. This phenomenon is most severe in Guatemala, which is currently experiencing a full-blown crisis of the democratic state. An unholy trinity of criminal elements—international drug traffickers, domestically based organized crime syndicates, and youth gangs—have dramatically expanded their operations since the 1990s, and are effectively waging a form of irregular warfare against government institutions."

Do Oil Exports Fuel Defense Spending? Dr Clayton K S Chun Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph explores the impact that oil revenue had on the national defense spending of five oil-exporting countries. Despite periods of falling oil revenues, these countries typically did not lower defense spending. In some cases, defense spending increased sharply, or the rate of decrease was much lower than the drop in oil revenues. This condition creates challenges for national security professionals. If nations face falling oil revenues and still have the will and ability to expand their military or security capabilities, then they might do so through the sacrifice of domestic spending or regional stability. Economic sanctions, worldwide recession, or falling oil demand may not stop these oil-exporting nations from purchasing weapons and creating large security forces. Although oil might have been a key to provide past or future earnings expectations to fund defense, perhaps there are other reasons why nations want relatively high defense spending levels despite lower oil revenue. The politics of oil and its impact on government control, regional threats, national interests, and other strategic factors may explain why these nations pursue defense spending despite falling oil revenue."

Security Sector Reform: A Case Study Approach to Transition and Capacity Building Ms Aleisha Arnusch, Ms Sarah Meharg PKSOI Paper US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "In this paper, the authors explore the definition of SSR as it has emerged in the international community, including the United States, its bilateral partners, and various intergovernmental organizations. It examines the makeup of the security sector, identifies emergent principles for implementing SSR in the community of practice, and specifies the outcomes that SSR is designed to produce."

Something Brewing in Venezuela COL Phillip R Cuccia Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Addressing a regional diplomatic-military problem is made all the more complicated when the region is not at the forefront of U.S. global strategic interests. Such a region simply does not get the attention that it deserves. I fear that may be what is happening now with South America in general and Venezuela in particular."

Drug Trafficking, Violence, and Instability in Mexico, Colombia, and the Caribbean: Implications for U.S. National Security Mr Evan Brown, Dr Dallas D Owens Colloquium Brief by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, University of Pittsburgh, Matthew B. Ridgway Center for International Security Studies "The relationships between powerful criminal groups and states are complex and create transnational issues of corruption and the production, transportation, marketing, and consumption of illegal products and services that have national security implications for most states in the Western Hemisphere."

Democratic Governance and the Rule of Law: Lessons From Colombia Gabriel Marcella PKSOI Paper by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute, US Army War College Press "Colombia has experienced conflict for decades. In the 1990s it was a paradigm of the failing state, beset with all manner of troubles: terrorism, kidnapping, murder, drug trafficking, corruption, an economic downturn of major scope, general lawlessness, and brain drain. Today the country is much safer, and the agents of violence are clearly on the defensive. Nonetheless, much work lies ahead to secure the democratic system. Security and the rule of law are fundamental to the task."

Mind-Sets and Missiles: a First Hand Account of the Cuban Missile Crisis Mr Kenneth Michael Absher Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This Letort Paper provides a detailed chronology and analysis of the intelligence failures and successes of the Cuban Missile Crisis. The author, Mr. Kenneth Absher, contends that, when our national security is at stake, the United States should not hesitate to undertake risky intelligence collection operations, including espionage, to penetrate our adversary’s deceptions. At the same time, the United States must also understand that our adversary may not believe the gravity of our policy warnings or may not allow its own agenda to be influenced by U.S. diplomatic pressure."

A "New" Dynamic in the Western Hemisphere Security Environment: The Mexican Zetas and Other Private Armies Dr Max G Manwaring Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "There is a large number of nonstate actors in the Western Hemisphere and around the world that exercise violence to advance their causes, radicalize the population, and move slowly but surely toward the achievement of their ideological and self-enrichment dreams. In Mexico, these nonstate actors have included a complex and enigmatic mix of transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) (cartels and mafia); enforcer gangs; political and ideological insurgents; and paramilitary “vigilante” organizations that generate violence and instability, erode democracy and the state, and challenge national security and sovereignty. The author, Dr. Max Manwaring, explains that a new and dangerous dynamic has been inserted into the already crowded Mexican and Western Hemisphere security arena. That new dynamic is represented by a private military organization called the Zetas."

Dealing with Political Ferment in Latin America: The Populist Revival, the Emergence of the Center, and Implications for U.S. Policy Dr Hal Brands Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Over the past decade, Latin America has experienced considerable political upheaval. Persistent poverty, corruption, and public insecurity have produced profound popular dissatisfaction and caused widespread ideological ferment. While the electoral results of this ferment are frequently described as a “lurch to the left,” such descriptions are misleading. Latin America is not experiencing a uniform shift to the left; it is witnessing a competition between two very different political trends. "