Middle East & North Africa

Transnational Threats from the Middle East: Crying Wolf or Crying Havoc? Prof Anthony H Cordesman Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "There is no doubt that the Middle East can present significant potential threats to the West. The author of this monograph examines these threats in order to put them into perspective—to distinguish between “crying wolf” and “crying havoc.” After thorough analysis, he contends that the problems caused by narcotics and organized crime, immigration, terrorism, and weapons of mass destruction do not as yet require draconian action by the Western nations. However, he asserts that if the threats of Middle Eastern terrorism and proliferation were to be combined into super-terrorism, the result would create a new form of asymmetric warfare for which the West is singularly ill-prepared."

Security Implications of the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East Dr Sami G Hajjar Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph, by Dr. Sami Hajjar, addresses the important question of the security implications for the nations of the region of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. The Strategic Studies Institute is pleased to offer the monograph as a contribution to the national security debate on this important issue. The author offers a unique perspective based on extensive interviews that he conducted in the region, and makes specific policy recommendations for U.S. military and civilian decisionmakers."

Searching for Stable Peace in the Persian Gulf Dr Kenneth Katzman, Dr Stephen C Pelletiere Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "America's dual containment policy for the Persian Gulf faces difficult challenges. Key allies of the United States withhold support for military action against Iraq, despite evidence that the Iraqis are clandestinely producing weapons of mass destruction. Similarly, U.S. allies have concluded potentially lucrative deals with Iran to exploit central Asian oil resources, despite Washington's opposition to them."

Syria and the Peace: A Good Chance Missed Dr Helena Cobban Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "One of the more dismaying aspects of the current peace process has been the failure of Syria and Israel to make a deal. According to Christian Science Monitor correspondent Helena Cobban, these two long-standing foes came very close to composing their decades-old quarrel. The Syrian and Israeli leaders persevered to overcome extraordinary obstacles, but in the end failed. A terrible setback, says Cobban, because so much hard negotiating work had been done up to the very last moment when the whole carefully constructed edifice of peace drifted away."

Two Perspectives on Interventions and Humanitarian Operations AMB Robert B Oakley, Dr Earl H Tilford Jr, Dr David Tucker Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The following two papers from that symposium complement each other well. In the first, a revised after action report on his experiences in Somalia, Ambassador Robert B. Oakley, a career foreign service officer who served as Special Envoy to Somalia during both the present and previous administrations, provides an honest and compelling look at that controversial operation. In the second paper, Dr. David Tucker, who serves on the staff of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict, dissects the arguments to develop criteria which might be used for and against engagement in humanitarian operations in an attempt to guide U.S. policymakers."

The Peace process, Phase One: Past Accomplishments, Future Concerns Dr Stephen C Pelletiere Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Since the establishment of the state of Israel in 1948, Jordan has been the linchpin in long-standing efforts to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict. Among Arab states, Jordan has the longest border with Israel and hosts the largest number of displaced Palestinians. Until 1967, Jordan governed the principal portion of pre-1948 Palestine that remained in Arab hands after the 1948 war, namely the West Bank territory including eastern Jerusalem. Jordan lost the West Bank to Israel in 1967, and King Hussein formally severed Jordan's administrative ties to the West Bank in 1988; however, in practice, the future of Jordan and the fate of the Palestinian community have remained closely linked."

Yemen and Stability in the Persian Gulf: Confronting the Threat from Within Dr Stephen C Pelletiere Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This study looks at Yemen, a small state which over the course of centuries has played a minor--but nonetheless important--part in the history of the Middle East. Yemen's importance derived from its strategic location. At various times great powers wishing to control the Red Sea/Indian Ocean area tried to take over Yemen."

A Theory of Fundamentalism: An Inquiry into the Origin and Development of the Movement Dr Stephen C Pelletiere Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Throughout the Middle East the fundamentalist tide is rising, and shows no sign of cresting soon. Given the extraordinary growth of fundamentalist attitudes, it is curious that in the West so much confusion exists about the movement. Western analysts seem unsure of how to deal with fundamentalism, much less capable of developing effective strategies to combat it. Their difficulty begins with a lack of awareness of the movement's origins. To understand fundamentalism, one must return to the 1970s and the period of the Cold War. The movement sprang from the clash of rightist and leftist forces; this circumstance--of being a product of the Cold War--shaped its development."

Terrorism: National Security Policy and the Home Front Dr Stephen C Pelletiere Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The recent bombing of the Federal Building in Oklahoma has highlighted the complexity of the phenomenon of political extremism. Until this occurred, inside the United States foreign terrorists were the focus of attention, particularly the so-called Islamic fundamentalists. Undue emphasis on the "foreign connection” can make it appear that only Middle Eastern terror is of consequence. The Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) has long resisted this approach. We view terrorism as a universal phenomenon, one that can erupt anywhere. As part of our continuing investigation of this problem, SSI held a conference last November at Georgia Tech, at which a number of terrorist-related issues were considered. The emphasis was on international terror, but the threat of domestic extremism also was examined. Included in this volume are three papers presented at the conference—two are related to international terror, while one is concerned with the domestic variety—and a concluding chapter."