Middle East & North Africa

The Danger of Seeking Permanent U.S. Military Bases in Iraq Dr W Andrew Terrill Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In a June 25, 2005, address to the nation, President George W. Bush stated, “We will stay in Iraq as long as we are needed—and not a day longer.” This statement may initially appear unremarkable, but it is nevertheless an important and valuable assertion of policy that can be usefully applied to the concept of long-term basing rights in Iraq."

Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran Mr Patrick Clawson, Mr Henry D Sokolski Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Little more than a year ago, the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) completed its initial analysis of Iran’s nuclear program, Checking Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions. Since then, Tehran’s nuclear activities and public diplomacy have only affirmed what this analysis first suggested: Iran is not about to give up its effort to make nuclear fuel and, thereby, come within days of acquiring a nuclear bomb. Iran’s continued pursuit of uranium enrichment and plutonium recycling puts a premium on asking what a more confident nuclear-ready Iran might confront us with and what we might do now to hedge against these threats."

Precedents, Variables, and Options in Planning a U.S. Military Disengagement Strategy from Iraq Dr Conrad C Crane, Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The United States is engaged in a massive effort to rehabilitate the government and political culture of Iraq, following the destruction of the Saddam Hussein regime in spring 2003. The U.S. goal and ideal for Iraq is the establishment and maintenance of a strong, self-sufficient, and forward-looking government. Currently, Iraq is in transition, as that country’s political leaders seek to establish a new, more representative form of government, while at the same time attempting to cope with a vicious ongoing insurgency. To accomplish these tasks, the government needs significant U.S. military support which will be reduced and then eliminated over time as the Iraqis hopefully become more self-sufficient."

The Global War on Terror: Mistaking Ideology as the Center of Gravity LTC Cheryl L Smart Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The Cold War was portrayed as an epic clash of two ideologies – Western Democracy versus Communism. Section IV of the defining cold war document, National Security Council 68 (NSC 68), was entitled “The Underlying Conflict in the Realm of Ideas and Values between the U.S. Purpose and the Kremlin Design,” and it argued that the basic conflict was between ideas – “the idea of freedom under a government of laws, and the idea of slavery under the grim oligarchy of the Kremlin.” The adversary resided in the Soviet Union and violence in other regions in the world – including terrorist violence – was exported from or used by this center of Communism. Today, the war of ideas is Western Democracy versus Salafi Islam..."

After Two Wars: Reflections on the American Strategic Revolution in Central Asia Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In the course of its wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. military has deployed forces to hitherto undreamt of destinations in Central Asia and the Caucasus. These deployments reflect more than the exigencies of specific contingencies, but rather are the latest stage in a revolution in strategic affairs that has intersected with the coinciding revolution in military affairs. Thanks to the linked developments in these two processes, the Transcaspian area has now become an area of strategic importance to the United States for many reasons, and not just energy."

Welcome Iran and North Korea to the Nuclear Club: You're Targeted LTC Raymond A Millen Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In one of the great ironies of the post-Cold War era, the United States, the most powerful nuclear state in the world, seems fear stricken by the possibility of Iran and North Korea obtaining nuclear weapons. Two facts frame the dilemma: both states are intent on becoming nuclear powers, and neither the European Union (EU) nor China is willing to help curb their ambitions. Clearly, nonproliferation is an important policy goal, but the United States should not view leakage as a catastrophe. Rather, the proper response is a declaratory policy of nuclear deterrence directed specifically at Iran and North Korea once they become nuclear powers."

Pseudo Operations and Counterinsurgency: Lessons from Other Countries Dr Lawrence E Cline Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph examines the role of pseudo operations in several foreign counterinsurgency campaigns. Pseudo operations are those in which government forces disguised as guerrillas, normally along with guerrilla defectors, operate as teams to infiltrate insurgent areas. This technique has been used by the security forces of several other countries in their operations, and typically it has been very successful."

Afghanistan: Reconstituting a Collapsed State LTC Raymond A Millen Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Lieutenant Colonel Raymond A. Millen examines warlordism as the principal impediment to Afghanistan’s revival and offers a shift in strategy that addresses the war of ideas, the counternarcotics initiative, and the incorporation of the Afghan National Army into the provincial reconstruction teams. As Lieutenant Colonel Millen observes, all the resources are in place; they simply need a shift in focus. Lieutenant Colonel Millen takes into account the historical, cultural, and economic factors that impede central authority and the reforms needed for modern states. His problem-solving approach is insightful, pragmatic, and innovative."

Golden Spear Task Force Meeting and Initial Planning Conference Mr Scott T Forster Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) hosted the Golden Spear Task Force Meeting and Initial Planning Conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-17 February 2005. The Golden Spear National Delegates, designated as National Focal Point (NFP) members, were present from Kenya, Burundi, Egypt, Seychelles, Ethiopia, and Uganda while U.S. participation included USCENTCOM, United States European Command (USEUCOM), National Defense University (NDU) African Centre for Strategic Studies (ACSS), and the U.S. Army War College."