Middle East & North Africa

Lessons of the Iraqi De-Ba'athification Program for Iraq's Future and the Arab Revolutions Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The presence of U.S. combat troops in Iraq has now come to an end, and the lessons of that conflict for the United States and other nations will be debated for some time to come. It is now widely understood that the post-invasion policy of de-Ba’athification, as practiced, had numerous unintended consequences that made building Iraqi civil society especially difficult following the U.S.-led invasion. The U.S. approach to this policy is often assessed as having underestimated both the dangers of increased sectarianism in Iraq and the need for strong efforts to manage ethnic-sectarian divisions. The Iraqi government’s approach to de-Ba’athification was, nevertheless, much more problematic due to its openly biased and sectarian nature. However well-intentioned, de-Ba’athification originally was as a concept, in practice it had a number of serious problems. These problems intensified and became more alarming as the de-Ba’athification process became increasingly dominated by the Iraqis and American oversight over that program gradually evaporated. At that time, it came to be viewed as an instrument of revenge and collective punishment by both the Iraqis that administered de-Ba’athification and those that were targeted by these policies. "

The Role of Small States in the Post-Cold War Era: The Case of Belarus Dr Dmitry Shlapentokh Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The following conclusions are drawn from this analysis: 1. There is an emerging post-unipolar world. Now the United States is not the only global center, as it was during the first years of the post-Cold War era. Nor do just two superpowers—the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics—now define the course of global events. The new multipolarity implies the presence of several centers of power. This provides the opportunity for small states such as Belarus to move from one center of power to another or to engage in a sort of geopolitical gamesmanship. 2. During the last 10 years or so, Belarus moved from Russia to the European Union (EU) and back. At the same time, it engaged in relationships with Iran and China. While relationships with Russia and the EU have not been stable, this is not the case with China and Iran. Here, Belarus has always maintained a good relationship, especially in the case of China. This is demonstrated by the increasing role of Asia in the geopolitical arrangements of the present, and will be even more so in the future."

The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Future of Middle East Security Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Saudi Arabia and Iran have often behaved as serious rivals for influence in the Middle East, especially the Gulf area, since at least Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. While both nations define themselves as Islamic, the differences between their foreign policies could hardly be more dramatic. In most respects, Saudi Arabia is a regional status quo power, while Iran often seeks revolutionary change throughout the Gulf area and the wider Middle East with varying degrees of intensity. Saudi Arabia also has strong ties with Western nations, while Iran views the United States as its most dangerous enemy. Perhaps the most important difference between the two nations is that Saudi Arabia is a conservative Sunni Muslim Arab state, while Iran is a Shi’ite state with senior politicians who often view their country as the defender and natural leader of Shi’ites throughout the region. The rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran has been reflected in the politics of a number of regional states where these two powers exercise influence."

Organizational Change in the Russian Airborne Forces: The Lessons of the Georgian Conflict Dr Rod Thornton Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph considers the recent history of organizational change in the Russian airborne forces (VDV). In particular, it looks at how the VDV has changed since the end of Russia’s conflict with Georgia in 2008. The VDV, a force much admired in the Russian news media and society, has, in fact, escaped fairly unscathed during the comprehensive reform of the Russian army more generally over the last few years. In large part this has been because of the personality of the current head of the VDV, Lieutenant General Vladimir Shamanov."

Arms Control and Proliferation Challenges to the Reset Policy Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph was presented at the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)-Carnegie Council conference connected with the Council’s U.S. Global Engagement Program. In this case, the engagement in question is with Russia, and this monograph specifically addressed the issues of how those aspects of the reset policy with Moscow that concern arms control and proliferation are proceeding. It duly addresses the question of whether further reductions in strategic offensive weapons are likely anytime soon, i.e., is it possible to go beyond the parameters in the recently signed and so-called New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) treaty with respect to reductions. Other critical issues involve the issues of missile defenses that Moscow vehemently opposes and the question of tactical or nonstrategic nuclear weapons, which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) wishes to have Russia reduce. "

The Afghanistan Question and the Reset in U.S.-Russian Relations Dr Richard J Krickus Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "U.S. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has said that the ability of the United States and Russia to cooperate in Afghanistan will be a solid test of their reset in relations. That proposition is the thesis of this monograph. Many analysts in both countries would agree with this assessment, but a significant number of them believe a fruitful reset is implausible."

Presidential Succession Scenarios in Egypt and Their Impact on U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations Mr Gregory Aftandilian Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The momentous events in Egypt since January 25, 2011, have focused the world’s attention on that critical country. Mostly young, pro-democracy activists appear to have successfully challenged Egypt’s authoritarian government and its long-time leader. President Hosni Mubarak has been driven from office and is reportedly in poor health. Hence, regime change is virtually certain. The Egyptian military, long a major power broker, gained popular support for its restrained reaction to the uprisings of January-February 2011 and currently (July 2011) the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, headed by Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi, leads the nation pending promised elections in the autumn. However, recent events suggest that the military may be reluctant to relinquish power fully, and popular unrest against it is rising. Thus, most scenarios discussed in this paper, or variations thereof, are still very possible."

2011-2012 US Army War College Key Strategic Issues List Antulio J. Echevarria II Document by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL) is published annually for the purpose of making students and other researchers aware of strategic topics that are, or should be, of special importance to the Department of Defense and the U.S. Army. The list is a compilation of input from the faculty at the U.S. Army War College, as well as from civilian and military experts across the field of defense studies. The topics reflect ongoing as well as anticipated strategic concerns, each of which is revised as the changing security environment warrants. This year has seen immense political and social changes sweep across North Africa and the Middle East. It has also seen important strategic and tactical successes in the war against al Qaeda..."

2011-2012 US Army War College Key Strategic Issues List Dr. Dallas Owens, Dr. Steven Metz, Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria II; Document by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL) is published annually for the purpose of making students and other researchers aware of strategic topics that are, or should be, of special importance to the Department of Defense and the U.S. Army. The list is a compilation of input from the faculty at the U.S. Army War College, as well as from civilian and military experts across the field of defense studies. The topics reflect ongoing as well as anticipated strategic concerns, each of which is revised as the changing security environment warrants. This year has seen immense political and social changes sweep across North Africa and the Middle East. It has also seen important strategic and tactical successes in the war against al Qaeda..."