Asia Pacific

Coercing Fluently: The Grammar of Coercion in the Twenty-first Century Dr C. A. Pfaff Monograph by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "To illustrate the logic and grammar of coercion, this analysis relies on decision-theory methods, such as game theory, that examine the strategic decision-making process in interactions with adversaries and partners. The intent here is not to offer predictive models of rational-actor behavior. Rather, the intent is to use game-theory and similar approaches to understand how coercion works better. This analysis considers competitive interactions between actors that have discrete and qualifiable, if not quantifiable, preferences and who behave rationally, though this analysis acknowledges the behavior that is considered rational is frequently informed by nonrational social, cultural, and psychological factors. Considering these competitive interactions allows one to identify “rules of thumb” that can orient and guide actors as they compete."

Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA – 2020 PLA Conference Papers Roger Cliff and Roy Kamphausen Conference Papers by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "Although the People’s Liberation Army is not yet a global expeditionary force on par with the US military, the former has nevertheless significantly expanded its ability to operate abroad. Through enhanced technological capabilities, robust relationships with foreign militaries, increased access to overseas military bases and dual-use facilities, and the implementation of major structural reforms, the People’s Liberation Army has built a more integrated joint force capable of conducting a wider and more complex array of missions. This volume advances the understanding of the People’s Liberation Army’s capability to conduct overseas missions by examining China’s military relations with Europe, Africa, and Latin America; the country’s military activities in the Indian Ocean, polar regions, and Pacific Island countries; and the emerging roles of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force and the Joint Logistic Support Force..."

by team Pacific Warrior: LTC Lee Hemming (USMC), LTC Randy Paul Lefebvre, LTC Matthew "Kip" Marsh, COL John Cletus Paumier (USAR), Pratya "Lek" Siriwat; Publication by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication examines the impact of the Russo-Ukranian conflict on China’s military strategies, particularly concerning Taiwan. It highlights the increased risks of forced unification and the need for China to improve join training, doctrine, and modernization efforts. The report suggests that China is likely to draw lessons from Russia’s operational failures, focusing on enhancing its military capabilities while considering economic insulation from potential sanctions. Overall, the analysis provides insights into how the conflict might influence China’s approach to Taiwan, emphasizing strategic caution and calculated planning.

China, Europe and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security John R. Deni, Chris Alden, Erik Brattberg, Roger Cliff, Mark Duckenfield, R. Evan Ellis, Nicholas Nelson, Lauren Speranza Collaborative Study by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has unleashed an immense shock to the global economy. In Europe, gross domestic product has fallen, and unemployment has risen. China might take advantage of the crisis—just as it did in the wake of the global financial crisis a decade ago. As part of its broader national security strategy, China might again use its sovereign wealth fund, government-affiliated companies, and nominally private Chinese firms to provide necessary liquidity in Europe. In doing so, Beijing could take advantage of Europe’s economic difficulties to obtain sensitive technologies, build soft power, and acquire militarily significant infrastructure."

by LTC Lee Hemming (USMC), LTC Randy Paul Lefebvre, LTC Matthew "Kip" Marsh, COL John Cletus Paumier (USAR), Pratya "Lek" Siriwat; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; China’s Use of Landpower for Unification of Taiwan delves into China’s multifaceted strategy to unify Taiwan by 2049 through the lens of landpower. The document outlines three main strategies: unification by maneuver, leveraging geopolitical and economic influence to isolate Taiwan; unification by fires, preparing for potential military aggression; and unification by mistake, exploiting missteps by Taiwan or its allies. Each strategy reflects China’s long-term vision and military modernization efforts, emphasizing strategic patience and the use of time as a domain to achieve its objectives without immediate conflict.

Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In this comprehensive analysis, a team of U.S. Army War College students examines China’s strategic ambitions to become the world’s dominant power by 2049. The report delves into China’s multifaceted approach, highlighting its focus on economic growth, regional hegemony, and global influence through technological advancements and strategic partnerships. Despite China’s progress, the report identifies significant challenges, including internal security issues, economic vulnerabilities, and geopolitical tensions, which could impede its path to global supremacy. The study underscores the implications for the United States and its allies, emphasizing the need for strategic preparedness in response to China’s evolving global strategy.

Korean War Biological Warfare Allegations Against the United States: A Playbook for the Current Crisis in Ukraine Conrad C. Crane Information Paper by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The recent accusations from Russia about American preparedness to launch biological warfare from Ukraine have an historical precedent from the Korean War, and can provide some insights about the intent of the allegations. Intense negotiations to end the Korean War began in mid 1951 as the front stalemated. With major ground offensives no longer an option, each side developed a different approach to coerce desired political outcomes at the peace table. The main sticking point became repatriation of prisoners of war. For UN forces, their primary coercive tool became American airpower, in an extensive bombing campaign that eventually laid waste to most of North Korea."

Framing the Future of the US Military Profession Richard A. Lacquement Jr., Thomas P. Galvin Monograph by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "The military profession needs to be redefined by examination of its expertise and jurisdictions of practice, whereas previously the focus was on securing its professional identity. Twenty years ago, the original Future of the Army Profession research project responded to growing concerns among officers that the Army was no longer a profession in light of the post–Cold War drawdown and the onset of global operations including Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, the profession faces recurrent challenges raised by the changing character of war, the renewal of great-power competition, crises surrounding issues of sexual harassment and assault, the effects of a major global pandemic and associated social and political unrest, and the growing societal distrust toward professions in general..."

The People of the PLA 2.0 Roy D. Kamphausen Conference Report by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "The 27th annual People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Conference—“The People in the PLA” 2.0—revisited a theme first explored at the 2006 conference but understudied since. This volume examines how the structure, education, training, and recruitment of PLA personnel have changed in the last decade and in the Xi Jinping era."