Regional Issues

Democratization Vs. Liberalization in the Arab World: Dilemmas and Challenges for U.S. Foreign Policy Dr Daniel Brumberg Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph looks at the political origins and dynamics of “liberalized autocracy” in the Arab world. Liberalized autocracy is a system of rule that allows for a measure of political openness and competition in the electoral, party, and press arenas, while ultimately ensuring that power rests in the hands of ruling regimes. This mix of control and openness has not only benefitted ruling elites, but oppositions as well. It gives them room to “let off steam,” to criticize regimes, and occasionally to affect public policy. Moreover, given the absence of consensus in many Arab states over national identity, liberalized autocracy has provided an umbrella by which competing groups―Islamists, secularists, Kurds, and Berbers―can achieve a measure of peaceful coexistence precisely because no group actually wields power. The United States largely has supported such hybrid systems, a fact of political life that has not changed dramatically under the Bush administration despite its rhetorical commitment to democracy. Whether the gap between words and deeds should or can be closed or narrowed is a complex question, since a sudden move from state managed liberalization to democracy could open the door to Islamist power."

After Two Wars: Reflections on the American Strategic Revolution in Central Asia Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In the course of its wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the U.S. military has deployed forces to hitherto undreamt of destinations in Central Asia and the Caucasus. These deployments reflect more than the exigencies of specific contingencies, but rather are the latest stage in a revolution in strategic affairs that has intersected with the coinciding revolution in military affairs. Thanks to the linked developments in these two processes, the Transcaspian area has now become an area of strategic importance to the United States for many reasons, and not just energy."

North Korea's Strategic Intentions Dr Andrew Scobell Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "North Korea poses a key challenge to the global community of states. Sometimes viewed as primarily a nuclear or proliferation challenge, Pyongyang actually presents the United States and other countries with multiple problems. As the 2005 National Defense Strategy of the United States notes, these challenges include “traditional, irregular, and catastrophic.” While each dimension of these threat capabilities are fairly clear and, with the exception of the third, readily documented, North Korea’s intentions are a much more controversial subject upon which specialists reach widely disparate conclusions."

U.S. National Security Implications of Chinese Involvement in Latin America Dr R Evan Ellis Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Dr. Evan Ellis seeks to do several things. He documents and examines the character of the new and increasing Chinese engagement in the Western Hemisphere. He then takes the analysis a step further by examining some of the potential dynamics of the Chinese engagement and its consequences for the long-term security interests of the United States. Dr. Ellis argues that China is both a significant competitor, and a potential partner of the United States in the region. Although he argues that China increasingly will vie with the United States for the hemisphere’s resources and political allegiances, he also notes that China’s growing dependence on its trade and investment in Latin America will give it security and stability interests that coincide with those of the United States."

Seizing the Day: Resolution in and around the Black Sea Dr Stephen J Blank Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "President Bush’s February 2005 meeting with European and Russian leaders represented an attempt to repair relations with each of these governments, with NATO, and with the European Union (EU). While Iraq, Iran, and Israel probably were the main issues in these meetings, recent events in the Black Sea basin provide an enormous opportunity to advance a common Western agenda and even possibly to associate Russia with an extension of the realm of security in Europe."

Saudi Arabia: Islamic Threat, Political Reform, and the Global War on Terror Dr Sherifa D Zuhur Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "U.S. foreign policy and the domestic concerns of Middle Eastern states are influencing the pursuit of the global war on terror in the Middle East. A close view of Saudi Arabia reveals the complex interaction of these forces. The U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia and the global war on terror are important challenges to the U.S. administration that have region-wide ramifications. Saudi Arabia has been facing down Islamist insurgency along with other challenges since September 11, 2001, and with even more urgency since May 2003. "

Is there a Positive Side to Al Jazeera? Dr W Andrew Terrill Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In the rogues’ gallery of contemporary American politics, one of our chief villains is the Qatari satellite television station, al Jazeera. This station at various times has been charged with being a bin Laden mouthpiece, pro-Saddam Hussein, insensitive to U.S. casualties, and willing to find bad motives in just about everything that the United States does in the region. "

Strategic Implications of Intercommunal Warfare in Iraq Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The future of Iraq is uncertain. The country is in a dangerous phase. The removal of a brutal dictatorship by coalition forces in April 2003 has given the Iraqi people hope for a new and better political system, where individuals do not have to live in continuing fear and uncertainty. Nevertheless, the Iraqi people must also address the difficult challenges of self-government for a diverse population, with major ethnic and sectarian groups that often maintain widely divergent agendas. If they fail to do this and an ethnic/sectarian war ensues, the consequences will be dire, not only for Iraq, but for the entire Middle Eastern region."

It's Asia (Again) Dr Andrew Scobell Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "One of the persistent claims made as the 20th century came to a close was that Asia and the Pacific were increasingly significant to the United States and the world. Analysts and commentators proclaimed that we were entering a “Pacific Century” and pointed to the rising power of large states such as China and India. Japan has been a major economic power for decades but the growth rates experienced by China and more recently by India, and expanding trade flows suggest the world’s economic center of gravity is indeed shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific."