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July 25, 2024

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

The Force

US Army paratroopers assigned to the 82nd Airborne Division march in the All-American Week Division Review ceremony at Fort Liberty, North Carolina (US Army photo by Private First Class Aiden O’Marra).


The US Army is undergoing a significant force-structure transformation. Such transformation is consistent with historical patterns of adapting to incorporate new technologies, addressing rising threats, and pursuing changing strategic objectives. The Army’s most recent transformation plan, announced in February 2024, is an important stride toward adaptation. The white paper “Army Force Structure Transformation” lays the groundwork for creating new capabilities, initiates new recruitment modernization efforts, and justifies challenging personnel reductions across the force.40 Even as the Army and the other services adjust their force structures to meet anticipated future demands, questions remain open about whether such changes will be enough and whether an adjusted force must be ready to meet other challenges.

Sense, Strike, and Survive: Developing New Capabilities

Technological advancements in sensor and strike technologies have created a modern battlefield that places a premium priority on targeting and survivability. The Army’s 2024 transformation plan accounts for the shift toward targeting and survivability, emphasizing growth in offensive capabilities through the Army developing and fielding five planned Multidomain Task Forces. Additionally, the Army’s transformation effort acknowledges the growing threat of forces being observed and targeted. To increase survivability, the Army is developing indirect-fire protection capability battalions, counter-sUAS (small unmanned aerial systems) batteries, and increasing the number of maneuver short-range air defense battalions. Beyond acquiring equipment, these formations will require roughly 7,500 new personnel billets. Notably, many of these billets will be technical or will require clearances beyond those of average enlistees. The billet requirements create an additional challenge for Army leaders to overcome when addressing the current recruitment crisis.

Modernizing Recruiting Efforts

The Army’s recruiting crisis is not new. Now is not the first time the all-volunteer force construct has struggled to reach the desired end strengths. Recruiting and retention were a focus area in the US Army War College’s 2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment. This year, though the Army’s transformation efforts might exacerbate recruiting challenges, the efforts also outline a plan to modernize the service’s approach to recruiting. Modernization starts with an unambiguous appreciation for the importance of manning future billets: “The Army must solve its recruiting challenges to successfully transform for the future.”41

The “Army Force Structure Transformation” white paper outlined a three-pronged recruitment modernization approach. First, the Army is determined to revitalize the recruiting workforce by creating a military recruiting warrant officer occupational specialty. Second, the service will expand the demographics from which it recruits. Rather than lowering standards to prioritize quantity over quality, the Army’s efforts will focus on ensuring one-third of recruits are either college graduates or have completed some college, highlighting a desire to enlist more educated recruits capable of filling highly technical positions. Finally, recruiting command will gain authority, with the commander’s rank rising from two stars to three. Furthermore, the commander will report “directly to the Secretary of the Army and the Chief of Staff of the Army in light of its critically important mission.”42 Although recruiting challenges are likely to persist, the change in force structure also comes with a reduction of billets that may lighten the recruiting mission.

Reducing Billets: Hard Cuts, No Pink Slips

The Army needs to identify roughly 32,000 billets to remove in support of the outlined transformation. The white paper assures readers “These planned reductions are to authorizations (spaces), and not to individual soldiers (faces). The Army is not asking current soldiers to leave.”43 The service is making numerous structural adjustments to reduce authorizations, including eliminating specialized engineer positions, inactivating certain United States–based cavalry squadrons, reducing weapons companies to weapons platoons in infantry brigade combat teams, and trimming some security force assistance brigade positions. Although the Army has set its path, some of the Army’s decisions may be controversial in select and invested communities.

Conclusion

What force structure the Army will need for future strategic challenges is unclear. The Army has decided on a transformation path and openly shared its initiatives, prioritizing sense-strike-survive capabilities, modernizing recruiting efforts, and making difficult decisions regarding cuts. Moving forward, the white paper concludes, “The transformation of Army force structure and recruiting will not happen overnight, but changes in both areas are underway.”44 Still, students of the strategic environment who can provide a unique perspective on the Army’s problems must add to the conversation. Similarly, the Army’s institutional changes and its associated challenges must be accounted for when examining the broader strategic environment and the role of the US Armed Forces in that environment.

Endnotes

  1. US Army, “Army Force Structure Transformation” (white paper, US Army, February 27, 2024). Return to text.
  2. US Army, “Army Force Structure Transformation,” 4. Return to text.
  3. US Army, “Army Force Structure Transformation,” 4. Return to text.
  4. US Army, “Army Force Structure Transformation,” 2. Return to text.
  5. US Army, “Army Force Structure Transformation,” 4. Return to text.
 

Photo Credit

Aiden O’Marra, 82nd Airborne Divisio [sic] Review 2024 [Image 4 of 5], May 23, 2024, DVIDS, link.