North America: The United States Northern Command Area of Operations
The United States has enjoyed a two-ocean barrier preventing enemy attacks on the homeland for more than two centuries. Except for the minor incursion of Mexican forces into New Mexico in 1916, the continental United States has been free from foreign invaders since the War of 1812. The homeland, however, extends beyond CONUS. During World War II, the Japanese occupied the Philippines, then a US commonwealth, Attu and Sitka in the Aleutians and Guam and Wake Island—all US possessions. Moreover, since the September 11 attacks, the assumption the homeland is a sanctuary has lost credibility. Presently, the United States and its North American allies face increasing competition from adversaries in the air, land, sea, space, and cyber domains; espionage and terrorism; political unrest; and the effects of climate change. Failure to fund and support militaries, national defense, and security architectures adequately undermines national and collective security.
External Competition
Recent incursions of Russian and Chinese ships into Alaskan territorial waters signal increased competition in the Arctic. The last five years have seen an increase in Chinese and Russian ships operating in the Arctic, including a combined Russia-China naval exercise in 2021. At the same time, North America faces a growing threat from multiple adversaries’ ballistic and cruise missiles and hypersonic weapons. Complicating matters, the recent deployment of Chinese intelligence balloons over North America demonstrated the People’s Republic of China’s willingness to test US resolve. Additionally, Russian and Chinese espionage is a genuine danger in the military, commercial, and academic realms. The United States expelled 10 Russian sleeper agents in 2010 and another 60 known agents in 2020. The number of deployed agents indicates the degree to which foreign governments are prepared to act against the United States. Technology is changing the threats to the United States. Adversarial cyber operations are not a distant possibility but a genuine and growing concern, inside and outside the United States. Russian interference during the US presidential elections of 2016 and 2020 demonstrates the system’s fragility. Exacerbated by cyberattacks that feed paranoia and conspiracy theories, divisions among the US population now challenge national security, demanding our utmost vigilance.
North American economies lack an effective mechanism for screening foreign investments from a national security perspective, which exposes potentially vulnerable supply chains and natural resources. China seeks to expand its relationships in North America and has made significant investments in Mexican industries. For instance, 80 percent of Mexico’s telecommunications are provided by Chinese companies. Failure to counter China’s influence could weaken the US defenses. Mexico spends approximately 1 percent of its GDP on security, one of the lowest among US allies.
Internal Threats
North America faces political unrest, with national elections scheduled in the United States and Mexico in 2024, Canada in 2025, and the Bahamas in 2026. The outcomes of the polls may affect bilateral relations between the United States and each of the other nations. Growing domestic violent extremism, narco-trafficking, and related terrorism continue to challenge the leadership of all nations.
Soldiers from 1st Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) act as the opposing force during an engagement with 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division, as part of Operation Lethal Eagle 24.1 at Fort Campbell, Kentucky (photo by Specialist Zachery Blevins).
United States
The hardening of ideological positions in the United States has led to deep political and cultural divides that the election will likely not heal, presenting a danger as significant as any external threat. Political unrest in the United States has damaged our standing, even among our closest allies. A 2021 poll on US soft-power influence found that 69 percent of Canadians perceive the United States as a less trusted partner than before 2016 following US withdrawal from international forums and believe the United States “used to be a good example” of democracy but is not one in recent years. Mexico has also traditionally held a favorable view of the United States, but a 2021 poll showed that only 51 percent of Mexicans advocated closer US ties. Poorly understood US policies constrain our influence in Mexico, particularly regarding migration. The United States must reduce these risks by challenging disinformation and reinforcing the benefits of engagement between neighbors. Public perception of US credibility on critical issues, especially democracy, inclusion, equity, and tolerance, jeopardizes our international leadership position.
Mexico
In Mexico, one of the most significant elections in the nation’s history saw the election of the country’s first female and first Jewish president in a male-dominated, majority-Catholic society. Claudia Sheinbaum and the ruling National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) party received a significant plurality in the election and now enjoy a clear mandate. Still, the election cycle resulted in unprecedented violence against politicians and candidates. Sheinbaum has pledged to follow her predecessor’s policies but has also signaled that she intends to strengthen the police.
Illegal immigration and cross-border drug smuggling have increased dramatically over the last few years. Fentanyl seizures at the border between fiscal years 2021 and 2023 rose 241 percent. Violent crime in Mexico has increased over the past several years, coupled with a weak justice system that eliminated many criminal penalties and eroded public confidence in the national government. Mexican officials cooperate with US authorities to combat crime, but this action has been ineffective. The level of crime in Mexico has led to election-year rhetoric in the United States advocating for the US military to pursue drug cartels in Mexico. The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024 directs enhanced security cooperation with Mexico to counter transnational criminal organizations and assess the organizations’ role in and impact on national security. The act also requires a plan to counter human-or drug-trafficking operations in coordination with interagency and North and South American defense partners.
Bahamas
American-Bahamian relations are strong, and the Bahamas has been the most pro-American country in the Caribbean bloc and a good partner in the fight against human and narco-trafficking. The United States recently donated a sizable maritime radar system to the Royal Bahamas Defence Force to facilitate better surveillance in the Caribbean. Despite the Bahamas’ close economic and defense relationship with the United States, the People’s Republic of China has also developed economic ties to the country through travel-industry investments. China sees the Caribbean as a critical competitor to the United States. Nassau hosts the largest Chinese embassy in the world, and the ambassador uses the information space very adeptly to undermine the United States. In contrast, the United States has not had an ambassador in Nassau since 2011. The porous maritime border between the United States and the Bahamas, 50 miles apart at its closest point, presents a significant security vulnerability. Transnational criminal organizations use pathways through the Bahamas to smuggle narcotics, people, weapons, and money into and out of the United States.
Former Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador espoused a nationalist economic policy that contradicts US interests and threatens US efforts to pursue a market-based approach to North American competitiveness. The American and Mexican governments work together to counter transnational criminal organizations and illicit networks, but Mexico underfunds the law enforcement agencies that manage Mexican borders. This underfunding allows illegal migration and enables transnational criminal organizations to smuggle humans, weapons, drugs, and other illicit goods.
Canada
American-Canadian relations remain strong and are expected to endure in perpetuity. The two countries share the world’s longest international border and enjoy close cooperation in the diplomatic, information, military, economic, financial, intelligence, and law enforcement realms. The combined North American Aerospace Defense Command / United States Northern Command provides antimissile defense for the continent. The American and Canadian militaries routinely conduct combined exercises, especially in the increasingly important Arctic region. The thawing Arctic ice, however, presents a potential source of conflict for the two nations, as they disagree about the ownership of the Northwest Passage.
The United States, Canada, and Mexico have one of the world's most heavily integrated trade and investment relationships. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) ensures strong and stable trade, smooth investment flows, highly integrated supply chains, interconnected energy, and infrastructure. The agreement, however, has also increased the challenges of illegal immigration. Since Canada included Mexico in its visa-exempt travel program in 2016, Canada has become a new pathway for Mexican illegal entry into the United States.
Nonadversarial Challenges
North America is confronted with a persistent and escalating threat from climate change, which has led in recent years to a surge in the severity of hurricanes, tornadoes, and wildfires that have ravaged the homeland. Natural disasters and weather phenomena have intensified in severity and frequency over the last three years, primarily because of climate change. Hurricanes in Hawaii, Florida, and Puerto Rico, wildfires throughout the western United States, and tornadoes in the Midwest have left caused immeasurable damage. North America conducts regular exercises to prepare for a potentially catastrophic earthquake.
The Bahamas is a low-lying small island archipelago, and climate change poses an existential threat. Studies indicate a one-meter rise in sea levels would cover 80 percent of the Bahamas. In addition to rising sea levels, climate change increases the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and coral reef degradation. Climate adaptation and mitigation are crucial to addressing these threats. Although much of the country depends on buffer systems (like corals and mangroves), many of these important ecosystems are in decline.
With the recent election of climate scientist President Sheinbaum, Mexico is poised to become a more effective North American partner in addressing climate change. Mexico currently ranks 11th among the leading greenhouse gas–emitting nations. The previous administration focused on strengthening crude oil production while disincentivizing renewable energy.
Besides the humanitarian response natural disasters require, such events pose a real threat to national security. In 2019, floodwaters from the Missouri River inundated Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska. The resulting significant damage critically inhibited the United States Strategic Command’s functioning ability, and repair work is ongoing five years later. North American and other defense and interagency partners continue to examine the potential for weather-events destruction to determine possible climate-mitigation options to protect military bases and critical national infrastructure.
Man-made disasters also threaten national security and affect our ability to project power. The recent destruction of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore’s harbor due to an accidental ship collision highlights the fragility of our most critical infrastructure. The bridge’s collapse blocked one of the nation’s busiest harbors and disrupted traffic along one of the East Coast’s most-traveled corridors. Aside from causing significant economic damage to the region, the incident potentially disrupts military movements from the East Coast.
Cross-border challenges can also threaten US public health and environmental protection. The collapse of one of Tijuana’s main sewage plants in 2017 and the flooding of a pump station in 2019 resulted in millions of gallons of Mexican sewage flowing into the United States. The 2023 Canadian wildfires affected air quality in much of the United States.
The nation has also seen an increase in biological threats during the past couple decades, including outbreaks of Ebola, influenza A (H1N1), and swine flu, culminating in the COVID-19 pandemic, the likes of which the world had not seen in a century. Recent biological threats proved to be more dangerous than terrorist incidents, as the biological threats had no identifiable enemy to blame. Moreover, biological threats revealed national and societal weaknesses in preparing for unexpected events. Patients rapidly overwhelmed existing hospital facilities and depleted the stock of personal protective equipment. The initial lack of a vaccine for COVID-19 added to the nation’s fear, while political divisions and paranoia delayed the containment of the spread of the virus.
Conclusion
North America faces numerous internal and external security challenges. Competition, and possibly conflict, with potential adversaries, including Iran, North Korea, Russia, and the People’s Republic of China, presents real dangers. Simultaneously, the region must address political unrest, cyberterrorism, climate change, and other issues threatening regional security. The homeland and its neighboring countries represent an often-overlooked area that is strategically vital to understanding the broader context of Department of Defense planning.
Photo Credit
Zachery Blevins, Operation Lethal Eagle Force on Force [Image 2 of 7], April 25, 2024, link.