Introduction
The following analysis is the third iteration of a product that continues to adapt to the changing security environment. The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges. To enable this research, it is organized into four broad and enduring themes:
- Theme 1 – Regional Challenges and Opportunities
- Theme 2 – Domestic Challenges
- Theme 3 – Institutional Challenges
- Theme 4 – Challenges to the US Strategic Advantage
Instead of attempting to recreate and update assessments from last year, each section examines how the environment is trending and highlights challenges likely to impact the Department of Defense significantly in the near future.
Competition with the People’s Republic of China continues to dominate the strategic narrative, with global implications for US national interests. The Russia-Ukraine War and the deteriorating situation in the Middle East, however, present immediate and political challenges that will undoubtedly influence US military efforts abroad.
At the same time, the United States faces domestic challenges in navigating civil-military relations, and the Army is working diligently to overcome institutional hurdles. The United States published its first National Defense Industry Strategy in January 2024, focusing on resilient supply chains, workforce readiness, flexible acquisition, and economic deterrence. Additionally, the Army released the 2024 white paper “Army Force Structure Transformation,” which lays the groundwork for creating new capabilities, initiates new recruitment modernization efforts, and justifies challenging personnel reductions across the force.
Finally, the prevalence of competition in new and maturing arenas (such as space and the polar regions) may impact a delicate balance among the great powers. This balance, and the potential relative advantage the United States maintains over its adversaries, is further challenged by emerging technologies, many of which have yet to realize their impact on defense operations.
The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment will evolve to address the fluid and complex world the Army faces. The US Army War College and the Strategic Studies Institute stand ready to address these challenges by fostering research across the Army and the broader defense community. This estimate serves as a starting point for this critical research and is supplemented by a list of strategic issues that offers insight into the particularized matters impacting defense organizations.