Recent Articles

Chinese Five Year Plans: An Economic Catalyst? LTC Troy D Galloway Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "China’s embrace of globalization in a measured manner is a direct result of the communist nation’s reliance on five-year national development plans to guide its growth and economic reform. This gradualist approach has worked well in moving the economy towards reform while avoiding significant risk. This short essay will discuss the linkages that exist between the significant Chinese economic success of the last 30 years and the communist five-year plans that have outlined many of the nation’s economic reforms."

Economics of National Security: "Unfunding" Terror LTC Mark W Holzer Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The discussion of how best to deprive terrorist organizations of funding is necessarily broad because of the numerous means people have devised to acquire and move funds for whatever purpose they intend. How seriously the United States takes this issue can be seen just in the number of statutory provisions that have been adopted and the diligence with which we update terror-associated lists that are aimed at depriving terrorists of funds. While it is clearly a matter of concern, the National Security Strategy’s treatment of this topic is very broad and is discussed only within fairly limited contexts. The muted language of the National Security Strategy (NSS) may simply be a realistic assessment of the difficulties we face in trying to dry up terrorist funding streams and the challenges of evaluating our efforts in spite of the fairly broad approach that has been undertaken in the past decade."

Is Brazil Actually Ready to be a World Economic Power? COL Vance F Stewart III Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "Brazil, a large and populous country, is blessed with an abundance of natural resources and long-standing ties and traditions to Europe; it is seen as a leader among the nations of the South American continent. Brazil’s ascendancy into the world’s diplomatic and economic leadership circles has been fueled by an amazing ten-year span of economic growth, backed by sound government budgeting and responsible social programs to improve its citizens’ quality of life. It is worth examining though, to ensure that this success has laid a foundation for continued, sustained growth or will it represent a brief moment of glory; with Brazil destined to lapse back into the mediocrity of a developing nation, saddled by crushing poverty, unequal income distribution, crime, and corruption? The question remains, is Brazil actually ready to be a world economic leader? In order to answer the question, this paper will review Brazil’s growth over the past ten years, examine relevant economic indicators, and analyze problem areas that may inhibit or derail future, sustainable progress."

BRIC in the Backyard: Brazil's Economic Rise and What it Means for the United States COL James K Rose Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "In today’s increasing globalized world there are several rapidly emerging market success stories that many economic and financial analysts are watching with great anticipation. Brazil is one of these of these geo-political risers and it is perhaps the most underestimated of the so-called BRIC countries. The term BRIC was coined by Jim O’Neill from the Wall Street giant Goldman-Sachs in 2003 and refers to the up and coming economic powerhouse nations around the globe and includes Brazil, Russia, India and China. The story behind Brazil’s economic growth is a remarkable tale and has multiple strategic implications for the United States as the two countries struggle to define their future bilateral relationship. The question of what Brazil’s rise means for the United States and what are the security implications for the hemisphere are significant."

The Afghanistan Question and the Reset in U.S.-Russian Relations Dr Richard J Krickus Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "U.S. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has said that the ability of the United States and Russia to cooperate in Afghanistan will be a solid test of their reset in relations. That proposition is the thesis of this monograph. Many analysts in both countries would agree with this assessment, but a significant number of them believe a fruitful reset is implausible."

Mexico's "Narco-Refugees": The Looming Challenge for U.S. National Security Dr Paul Rexton Kan Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Since 2006, when Mexican president Felipe Calderon declared war on the drug cartels, there has been a rise in the number of Mexican nationals seeking political asylum in the United States to escape the ongoing drug cartel violence in their home country. Political asylum cases in general are claimed by those who are targeted for their political beliefs or ethnicity in countries that are repressive or failing. Mexico is neither. Nonetheless, if the health of the Mexican state declines because criminal violence continues, increases, or spreads, U.S. communities will feel an even greater burden on their systems of public safety and public health from “narco-refugees.” Given the ever-increasing brutality of the cartels, the question is whether and how the United States Government should begin to prepare for what could be a new wave of migrants coming from Mexico. "

Presidential Succession Scenarios in Egypt and Their Impact on U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations Mr Gregory Aftandilian Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The momentous events in Egypt since January 25, 2011, have focused the world’s attention on that critical country. Mostly young, pro-democracy activists appear to have successfully challenged Egypt’s authoritarian government and its long-time leader. President Hosni Mubarak has been driven from office and is reportedly in poor health. Hence, regime change is virtually certain. The Egyptian military, long a major power broker, gained popular support for its restrained reaction to the uprisings of January-February 2011 and currently (July 2011) the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, headed by Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi, leads the nation pending promised elections in the autumn. However, recent events suggest that the military may be reluctant to relinquish power fully, and popular unrest against it is rising. Thus, most scenarios discussed in this paper, or variations thereof, are still very possible."

Threat Posed by Mounting Vigilantism in Mexico Dr George W Grayson Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Until the 1980s, Mexico enjoyed relative freedom from violence. Ruthless drug cartels existed, but they usually abided by informal rules of the game hammered out between several capos and representatives of the dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled the country in Tammany Hallfashion from 1929 until the 1990s. Relying on bribes or mordidas, the desperados pursued their illicit activities with the connivance of authorities, frequently through ad hoc pacts that might last days, weeks, or months. "

Puncturing the Counterinsurgency Myth: Britain and Irregular Warfare in the Past, Present, and Future Dr Andrew Mumford Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Britain’s numerous counterinsurgency campaigns in the post-World War II era have resulted in a generally accepted academic assessment that this volume of experience equates to competence in the realm of irregular warfare. However, the British response to the complexities of 21st century insurgencies, particularly in their decentralized and globally networked form, has threatened to expose this competency as a colonial-era myth. Quantity of counterinsurgency combat experience has not equated to outright quality."