Middle East & North Africa

Deterrence, Missile Defense, and Collateral Damage in the Iranian-Israeli Strategic Relationship Dr W Andrew Terrill Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "One of the central concerns of U.S. strategic analysts examining the Middle East is the danger that Iran may develop a nuclear weapons capability which it could use to threaten the security of other regional states. These fears exist despite the recent declassification of a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) “key judgments” summary suggesting that the Iranian nuclear weapons development program was frozen in 2003."

Elections in Afghanistan: Looking to the Future Michael J Metrinko Issue Paper by the US Army War College, US Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "Modern Afghan political history has witnessed a series of violent power struggles, bloody coups, assassinations and unstable transfers of authority. The various forms of government over the past 50 years have included a monarchy, varieties of socialism, a communist state, and a theocracy. Although many officials of these previous regimes still play a role in Afghan politics, a very large number – including several heads of state – died violently in the various upheavals. The Afghan government has now been restructured as an Islamic republic consisting of three branches of power – executive, legislative and judiciary – with powers and responsibilities clearly delineated in a new Constitution. Elected in 2004, Hamid Karzai is now the President of Afghanistan, and a Parliament and Provincial Councils were elected by popular vote in 2005."

Jordanian National Security and the Future of Middle East Stability Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The United States and Jordan have maintained a valuable mutually-supportive relationship for decades as a result of shared interests in a moderate, prosperous, and stable Middle East. In this monograph, Dr. W. Andrew Terrill highlights Jordan’s ongoing value as a U.S. ally and considers ways the U.S.-Jordanian alliance might be used to contain and minimize problems of concern to both countries. Although Jordan is not a large country, it is an important geographical crossroads within the Middle East and has been deeply involved in many of the most important events in the region’s recent history. Now, the importance of this relationship has increased, and Jordan has emerged as a vital U.S. ally in the efforts to stabilize Iraq and also resist violent extremism and terrorism throughout the region."

Development and Reform of the Iraqi Police Forces COL Tony Pfaff Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This paper will seek to show how social, political, cultural, and environmental factors have combined to impede Iraqi police development in ways that are predictable, understandable, and, with external help, resolvable. The corruption and abuse found in the Iraqi police services cannot simply be explained by poor leadership, the actions of a few corrupt individuals, or even the competing agendas of the various militias that are fighting for influence in post-Saddam Iraq. Rather, one must explain why such practices occur despite the fact they are unacceptable according to Iraqi cultural norms."

Pakistan's Nuclear Future: Worries Beyond War Mr Henry D Sokolski Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This volume was completed just before Pakistani President Musharraf imposed a state of emergency in November 2007. The political turmoil that followed raised concerns that Pakistan’s nuclear assets might be vulnerable to diversion or misuse. This book, which consists of research that the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) commissioned and vetted in 2006 and 2007, details precisely what these worries might be."

The Interagency and Counterinsurgency Warfare: Aligning and Integrating Military and Civilian Roles in Stability, Security, Transition, and Reconstruction Operations Mr Jay W Boggs, Dr Joseph R Cerami Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "U.S. military campaigns in Afghanistan, Iraq, and the greater Global War on Terrorism have confronted civilian policymakers and senior military officers with a complex, fluid battlefield which demands kinetic and counterinsurgency capabilities. This monograph addresses the security, stability, transition, and reconstruction missions that place the most pressure on interagency communication and coordination. The results from Kabul to Baghdad reveal that the interagency process is in need of reform and that a more robust effort to integrate and align civilian and military elements is a prerequisite for success. "

Regional Threats and Security Strategy: The Troubling Case of Today's Middle East Mr James A Russell Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph attempts to peel back the layers of complexity surrounding the regional threat environment as a first step in the process of constructing a security strategy that can effectively mitigate the threats to U.S. and global interests. The United States has relied on a remarkably effective Cold War template to protect and preserve its regional interests that includes such elements as access to host nation facilities, prepositioned military equipment, foreign military sales, and joint training and exercises. The question facing strategists is whether this template remains relevant to the regional environment. The author argues that changing internal political dynamics throughout the region will make it increasingly difficult for regional elites to continue to allow the United States to apply its tried and true Cold War template."

The Evolution of U.S.-Turkish Relations in a Transatlantic Context Dr W Andrew Terrill Colloquium Brief by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, with The Atlantic Council of the United States "The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College and the Atlantic Council of the United States conducted a colloquium entitled “The Evolution of U.S.-Turkish Relations in a Transatlantic Context” on March 25, 2007. Additional support for this conference was provided by the Washington Delegation of the European Commission and the Heinrich-Boell Foundation. The colloquium brought together serving and retired academics, diplomats, and military officers from the United States, Europe, and Turkey."

The Summit: Mirage or Milestone? Dr Sherifa D Zuhur Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Considering Senator George Mitchell’s remarks on the negotiations that ended the conflict in Northern Ireland, I can only wonder if they would have succeeded if matters were left to fester as in the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Or in the national dispute in Lebanon. Or Iraq. Without the energy devoted by a U.S. President, the 2 years devoted to negotiations on Northern Ireland, and the leaders’ refusal to be dissuaded by violence, could Mitchell have succeeded? Had he and others not been deeply committed to the notion that the people of Northern Ireland should choose their own future, would they have prevailed?"