Europe & Russia

The Russian Military in the 21st Century Dr Alexei G Arbatov Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The very title of this monograph is quite ambiguous. On the one hand, only 3 years are left until the 21st century. This is too short a time to forecast or propose any serious change in a huge and complicated organization like the armed forces of a great power. On the other hand, each century lasts 100 years, and without a crystal ball it is impossible to predict the evolution of armed forces over such a long period, least of all at a time of dynamic and revolutionary shifts in the world's technologies, economics, the geopolitical scene, and the relative military balance between nations."

Challenges and Options in the Caucasus and Central Asia Dr Pavel K Baev Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "That Russia has vital strategic interests in the Caucasus and Central Asia can be taken as an established political fact. What is remarkable about this fact is that the nature of these interests as well as the nature and intensity of challenges to them have changed quite drastically during Russia's 5 years of existence as a post-Soviet state. It is no wonder that Russian policymakers are permanently agonizing over reassessment of these interests and are now nowhere close to producing a coherent strategy of their advancement. This monograph will argue that Russia's ability to meet the challenges from the South is a major factor in determining its future as a world power."

Why Russian Policy is Failing in Asia Dr Stephen J Blank Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Since its inception as a state, Russia has been both a European and an Asian power. Although Russia today, as was true during much of its history, is torn by an identity crisis over where it belongs, its elites have never renounced Russia's vital interests in Asia and the belief that it should be recognized as a great power there. However, that belief and Moscow's ability to sustain it are now under threat, due, as Dr. Stephen Blank's thorough analysis informs us, to the ongoing failures of Russian policymakers to come to grips with changed Russian and Asian realities."

The Dynamics of Russian Weapon Sales to China Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Russia has recently sold or transferred many military weapons or technologies to China. Russian state policy has also officially joined with China in a relationship described as a strategic cooperative partnership. Some Russian diplomats also say that there is virtually complete identity with China on all issues of Asian and global security. Dr. Stephen Blank examines this relationship carefully for what it reveals about both states' international security policies."

Force, Statecraft and German Unity: The Struggle to Adapt Institutions and Practices Dr Thomas-Durell Young Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Since the unification of Germany on October 3, 1990, the question of how Bonn will conduct its foreign and defense policies continues to be posited. Gone are the days when Paris "led" Western Europe and the Federal Republic of Germany tacitly accepted its supporting role. The Federal Republic now has all the composite elements to be a Great Power, with the exception of its own nuclear arsenal. Nonetheless, Bonn possesses the largest economy and population in Western and Central Europe, and plans to maintain the largest peacetime military establishment east of the Bug River. Even if Germany were to eschew any Great Power ambitions, it no longer has the luxury of denying either to itself or its allies that it does have important international responsibilities to which it must be prepared to contribute."

Ethnic Conflict and European Security: Lessons from the Past and Implications for the Future Ms Maria Alongi Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, Women in International Security "With the outbreak and intensification of a number of ethnically defined conflicts on the European continent since the fall of communism, a conventional wisdom has formed that makes ethnic tensions and instability in Europe almost synonymous. This prevailing notion of an ethnic threat to European stability also has affected the debate on European and transatlantic security institutions. Indeed, the capacity to prevent and respond to ethnic conflict has been a major consideration in the process of institutional development undertaken by several key political and security organizations, including the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the European Union (EU), and the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). As further proof of the centrality of ethnic questions in European security, the effectiveness and continued relevance of these organizations has often been linked to their responsiveness, or lack thereof, to the most prominent ethnic conflict in Europe: the Balkan crisis."

Finnish Security and European Security Policy Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In 1995 Finland joined the European Union (EU). This action culminated several years of a fundamental reorientation of Finnish security policy as Finland moved from the neutrality imposed on it by the Soviet Union to a policy with a priority on European integration through the European Union. Finland, in joining the EU, has retained its independent defense and security posture, even as it seeks to strengthen its standing abroad and gain added leverage, through the EU, for dealing with Russia. Finland's odyssey indicates much about two fundamental issues in European security: coping with Russia's crises, and the interrelationship between the EU and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as providers of security for small states in Europe."

U.S. Participation in IFOR: A Marathon, not a Sprint Dr William T Johnsen Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Notwithstanding the cogent reasons behind the current December 1996 deadline for withdrawing U.S. ground forces from Bosnia, that policy must be reexamined in light of existing strategic conditions. A decision on whether to extend participation in the IFOR or to join in a successor organization will be neither easy nor insignificant. Nonetheless, it will have to be made, and in the not too distant future. Now, therefore, is the time to examine the issues that will determine whether the United States will continue to lead efforts to ensure a lasting political settlement in Bosnia."

Russian Security Policy in the Asia-Pacific Region: Two Views Dr Stephen J Blank, Maj Gen Anatoly Bolyatko, Prof Peggy Falkenheim Meyer Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Since the conquest of Siberia, Russia has been an Asian and Pacific power. The end of the Cold War transformed this entire region's security structure, a transformation that accelerated when the Soviet Union fell apart and was replaced by Russia. Russia faces new security challenges in this most dynamic of regions, which still holds substantial possibilities of military conflict. But there has been a tendency in the West to overlook the new Russia's place in Asia."