Europe & Russia

Russia's Invasion of Chechnya: A Preliminary Assessment Dr Stephen J Blank, Dr Earl H Tilford Jr Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "On December 11, 1994, Russia invaded the secessionist republic of Chechnya in the North Caucasus. The aim was to suppress the republic's government, led by General Dzhokar Dudayev, compel it to accept Moscow's authority, and to force it to renounce its bid for independence and sovereignty. This invasion, which quickly turned into a military quagmire for Russia's troops, triggered a firestorm of domestic opposition, even within the higher levels of the Ministry of Defense. As a result, the invasion has the most profound and troubling possible consequences for the stability of the Russian government, Russian democracy, and the future political- military relationship. This special report, based on what is already known, attempts to assess the discernible consequences of this invasion and provide a framework within which future developments can be assessed. It is offered as a contribution to the debate on this timely issue."

Pandora's Box Reopened: Ethnic Conflict in Europe and Its Implications Dr William T Johnsen Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "As the headlines attest, ethnic conflict has reemerged with a vengeance. Nowhere is this trend more evident than in Europe, where ethnically motivated warfare in the former Yugoslavia threatens to engulf the remainder of the Balkans and pent up ethnic tensions in Central and Eastern Europe have the potential to overturn the fragile democracies emerging from the shadow of the Soviet Union. Even Western Europe is not immune from ethnic tensions and crises."

Germany, France and NATO Ms Maria Alongi, Dr Peter Schmidt Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "To provide a wider understanding of the changed nature of the Alliance, Dr. Peter Schmidt of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Ebenhausen, Germany, examines the current policies of France and Germany, the two largest continental NATO powers, toward NATO. Dr. Schmidt presented this paper in June 1994 to a roundtable sponsored by the American Institute for Contemporary Germany Studies and the Chief of Staff of the Army's Strategic Outreach Program. Approximately two dozen European experts participated in this roundtable ably recorded by Ms Maria Alongi."

Russian Policy and the Korean Crisis Dr Stephen J Blank Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The crisis ignited by North Korea's nuclear program affects Russia's vital interests. To understand Russian policy in this crisis, we must refer to both those vital geopolitical interests and to the contemporary and bitter domestic debate over Russian policy abroad."

French Policy Toward NATO: Enhanced Selectivity, Vice Rapprochement Dr William T Johnsen, Dr Thomas-Durell Young Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The authors of this report explain how French policy toward NATO has changed since 1992. Importantly, they discuss how these changes have been effected. However, certain key elements of French external policy have not changed. In effect, therefore, the authors argue that while France may wish to cooperate with NATO, this does not imply that there will be a more cooperative French attitude toward the Alliance."

Energy and Security in Transcaucasia Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "One of the world's enduring regional conflicts is in Nagorno-Karabakh. This war pits local Armenians and their cousins from Armenia against Azerbaidzhan and has enmeshed Russia, Turkey and the Western allies (France, Great Britain, and the United States) in a complex series of regional relationships. The international stakes of this war involve the control over exploration for natural gas and oil and the transhipment of these commodities from Azerbaidzhan to the West. Energy resources represent Azerbaidzhan's primary means of economic modernization and are therefore vital to its economic and political freedom."

The New Russia in the New Asia Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In the past, Imperial and Soviet Russia played an active role in Asia. This is no less true for the current Russian republic. While Western analyses and policies may downplay Russia's presence in Asia, Russian leaders do not. In Asia, Russia exercises an important influence on regional developments. No less important is the way which policymakers in Moscow perceive their tasks and goals in Asia. These views will profoundly affect the further development of Russia's internal political, military, and economic structures."

Russia's New Doctrine: Two Views Dr Michael M Boll, COL James F Holcomb Jr Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In the past decade, Soviet/Russian military doctrine has experienced startling changes both in content and in the role such doctrine will play in protecting the vital interests of the state. This report focuses upon efforts during and after the Gorbachev era to establish clear national security priorities and to enumerate the ways in which military doctrine might ensure protection of the Russian national interest."

Proliferation and Nonproliferation in Ukraine: Implications for European and U.S. Security Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "When the Soviet Union collapsed the new Ukrainian state inherited the nuclear weapons that had been deployed on it's territory. Through 1993 there was growing support in Ukraine for the establishment of a quid pro quo. Many Ukrainians felt that, in return for denuclearization, Ukraine should receive security and economic guarantees from both Washington and Moscow. Until then it would hold back on dismantling and transferring the weapons to Russia, signing the START treaties, and ratifying the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty. But in January 1994, after considerable coaxing and pressure, Ukraine agreed with Russia and the United States to proceed along those lines. This monograph examines the reasoning behind that decision and the implications of it for Ukraine's security and for its relationship with the United States."