Europe & Russia

Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA – 2020 PLA Conference Papers Roger Cliff and Roy Kamphausen Conference Papers by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "Although the People’s Liberation Army is not yet a global expeditionary force on par with the US military, the former has nevertheless significantly expanded its ability to operate abroad. Through enhanced technological capabilities, robust relationships with foreign militaries, increased access to overseas military bases and dual-use facilities, and the implementation of major structural reforms, the People’s Liberation Army has built a more integrated joint force capable of conducting a wider and more complex array of missions. This volume advances the understanding of the People’s Liberation Army’s capability to conduct overseas missions by examining China’s military relations with Europe, Africa, and Latin America; the country’s military activities in the Indian Ocean, polar regions, and Pacific Island countries; and the emerging roles of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force and the Joint Logistic Support Force..."

by team Pacific Warrior: LTC Lee Hemming (USMC), LTC Randy Paul Lefebvre, LTC Matthew "Kip" Marsh, COL John Cletus Paumier (USAR), Pratya "Lek" Siriwat; Publication by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication examines the impact of the Russo-Ukranian conflict on China’s military strategies, particularly concerning Taiwan. It highlights the increased risks of forced unification and the need for China to improve join training, doctrine, and modernization efforts. The report suggests that China is likely to draw lessons from Russia’s operational failures, focusing on enhancing its military capabilities while considering economic insulation from potential sanctions. Overall, the analysis provides insights into how the conflict might influence China’s approach to Taiwan, emphasizing strategic caution and calculated planning.

China, Europe and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security John R. Deni, Chris Alden, Erik Brattberg, Roger Cliff, Mark Duckenfield, R. Evan Ellis, Nicholas Nelson, Lauren Speranza Collaborative Study by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has unleashed an immense shock to the global economy. In Europe, gross domestic product has fallen, and unemployment has risen. China might take advantage of the crisis—just as it did in the wake of the global financial crisis a decade ago. As part of its broader national security strategy, China might again use its sovereign wealth fund, government-affiliated companies, and nominally private Chinese firms to provide necessary liquidity in Europe. In doing so, Beijing could take advantage of Europe’s economic difficulties to obtain sensitive technologies, build soft power, and acquire militarily significant infrastructure."

Korean War Biological Warfare Allegations Against the United States: A Playbook for the Current Crisis in Ukraine Conrad C. Crane Information Paper by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The recent accusations from Russia about American preparedness to launch biological warfare from Ukraine have an historical precedent from the Korean War, and can provide some insights about the intent of the allegations. Intense negotiations to end the Korean War began in mid 1951 as the front stalemated. With major ground offensives no longer an option, each side developed a different approach to coerce desired political outcomes at the peace table. The main sticking point became repatriation of prisoners of war. For UN forces, their primary coercive tool became American airpower, in an extensive bombing campaign that eventually laid waste to most of North Korea."

Human Security in U.S. Military Operations: A Primer for DOD Sarah Petrin PKSOI Paper by US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "The U.S. Army has always worked among people in areas of conflict. In recent times, the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are wrestling with what human security means, how military operations impact it, and what can be done to mitigate the harm. This primer is published to inform those within DOD working in this area, whether commanders, planners or curious soldiers and civilians. If we have learned nothing else in the past 20 years of war and its aftermath, it should be that the human domain is complex. If we fail to get our efforts right in these areas, we may well have tactical successes and strategic failure."

James M. Mitchell, James A. Kievit, Kirk J. Junker, Patrick J. Malone, Leslie L. Semrau; Publication by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; The U.S. Army War College student team “Indovino Nefario” analyzes the future force design approaches of China and Russia, emphasizing that both nations are likely to adopt policy-driven and competition-centric strategies rather than traditional doctrinal frameworks. The report highlights that while China focuses on integrating military and economic strategies through its Military Civil Fusion policy, Russia is expected to prioritize asymmetric capabilities and modernization of its conventional forces to maintain deterrence amid economic constraints, with both nations aiming to mitigate risks associated with armed conflict in 2035.

A Hard Look at Hard Power: Assessing the Defense Capabilities of Key US Allies and Security Partners—Second Edition Mr Gary J Schmitt Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "In a world where the United States faces two major revisionist powers—Russia and China—and additional security threats from Iran, North Korea, and jihadist terrorists, a critical edge for the United States is its global network of allies and strategic partners. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy notes, 'Alliances and partnerships are crucial to our strategy, providing a durable asymmetric strategic advantage that no competitor or rival can match.' "

Striking the Balance: US Army Force Posture in Europe, 2028—A Study Sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of the Army COL J.P. Clark, Dr C. A. Pfaff Document US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This study takes on one of the most difficult strategic decisions the Army faces today: how to plan for an uncertain and volatile future. In the context of Army force posture in Europe, these decisions are complicated by limited resources and by an evolving adversary that can employ asymmetric means to neutralize the impact of investments the Army makes today. In an effort to ensure Army capabilities endure over the long term and prevail in the event of conflict, the Army is implementing multidomain operations (MDO), which describes how the Army can compete with or, if necessary, defeat, an adversary across all domains, as part of the Joint Force. Conceived this way, MDO is more than simply Joint operations. MDO describes how the Army will fight alongside the other services in the air, land, sea, space, and cyber domains."

Ashraf S. Abdelhak, Jerry A. Brown, Rafael A. Duran, Russell V. Hoff, Samuel P. Smith; Document from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This document meticulously evaluates the modernization plans and defense strategies of key global players, including China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, identifying 19 capabilities and 22 unique threat signatures that will likely evolve. The report emphasizes the necessity for the U.S. Army to develop sophisticated, integrated sensor systems capable of detecting both technical and non-technical signatures, as adversaries increasingly employ advanced technologies such as electronic warfare, cyber capabilities, and stealth to obscure their actions. As global powers continue to enhance their military capabilities, this analysis serves as a crucial guide for maintaining strategic superiority and ensuring national security.