Europe & Russia

C. Anthony Pfaff, ©2024 C. Anthony Pfaff; Monograph from the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute. US Army War College Press; As wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue with little end in sight, the sense of urgency to determine how they should end is increasing, given how the wars could end. A just war aims to establish a better state of peace, but a better state of peace may not always be achievable, and even when it is achievable, it may not be good enough. When that is the case, actors must determine on what terms to settle, given what they think they can achieve based on relative capabilities and cost tolerances. The resulting “maximin” solution, a practical approach where actors maximize the minimum they can achieve, provides a range of solutions. But taking only these factors into account is not likely to produce an enduring or more perfect peace. To get to a “good enough” state of peace, justice concerns—in this case framed by the just-war tradition—play a role. By impacting what counts as costs and benefits and placing boundaries on what actors should accept independently of those costs and benefits, the just-war tradition can help actors construct more durable settlements. The experiences in Ukraine and Gaza further illustrate gaps in the just-war tradition, which this book also addresses.

John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson, ©2024 John R. Deni; Monograph from the US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College; What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Russia and China? In this monograph, John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson assess whether US allies and partners in Europe can continue providing military assistance to Ukraine or expand assistance, while preserving their own national security and fulfilling their NATO commitments. They also explore what the Russia-Ukraine War reveals about the role of European allies in future iterations of strategic competition. Their findings indicate European allies remain firmly in support of assisting Ukraine politically, even if the reasons for allied support vary across Europe. Despite agreeing support is necessary, European allies face several hurdles on the path toward scaling up military assistance to Ukraine. The reasons for the hurdles vary, and some exceptions exist, but Deni and Aronsson find without continued, sustained US engagement, leadership, and presence in Europe, Washington may find itself with few European allies by its side. To facilitate and sustain continued success in transatlantic burden sharing, the authors provide several practical recommendations for US policymakers to consider.

Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War Ron Gurantz Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press Satellites and counterspace systems have shown themselves to be important parts of modern warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War but have also been subject to various restrictions to prevent escalation. This monograph examines the role of satellites and counterspace systems in the Russia-Ukraine War’s high-technology warfare and the effects of satellite proliferation and commercialization on the conduct of the war. It also analyzes the restrictions under which space-based capabilities have been operating and the implications of these limits for future conflicts—a subject that has received little attention. Relying on an exhaustive study of open-source material and the application of limited-war theory to the case of the Russia-Ukraine War, this monograph will help officials and strategists better understand the roles satellites are likely to play in future conflicts and the limits under which states will operate them as governments seek to gain military advantage and avoid escalation.

A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force John A. Nagl, Project Director Katie Crombe, Chief of Staff Integrated Research Project by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute This book explores the changing character of war through the lens of the Russia-Ukraine War. The authors analyze the conflict’s history, each side’s warfighting functions, the role of multidomain operations, and more. The radical changes in the character of war suggest the United States is at a strategic inflection point. The authors draw lessons from both the Ukrainians and the Russians to suggest improvements for the United States. Advances in drone technology, cyber warfare, and electromagnetic warfare pose new technological vulnerabilities and possibilities. In addition, the war has highlighted the roles of allies in deterrence and training as well as how leadership styles within the military—specifically, in the implementation of mission command—can be a decisive factor. As the Russia-Ukraine War has demonstrated, modern conflict touches a plethora of domains; thus, having sufficient personnel who are ready to fill a variety of capacities will be critical in the future. Finally, the war has shown history and justice are critical aspects of going to war and achieving peace, so crafting a narrative and satisfying stakeholders will be necessary for establishing a stable world order. The Russia-Ukraine War foreshadows the challenges the United States will face in future conflict and highlights the keys to adapting to modern warfare.

COL Mike Flury, COL Andi Tallman, LTC Troy Johnson, LTC Nick Panepinto, LTC Patrick Ryan; Publication from US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; China’s Strategic Blueprint: Creating a Multipolar World Through 2035 is a comprehensive analysis exploring China’s strategic ambitions to establish a China-led international order by 2035. The report delves into China’s likely use of hybrid warfare tactics, including economic and cyber warfare, to challenge the current U.S.-led global norms. It also examines China’s strategic partnerships, particularly with Russia, and its initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, which aim to expand its influence without forming traditional military alliances, reflecting China’s preference for flexible partnerships over rigid alliances.

The Future Role of Strategic Landpower Dr. Gregory L. Cantwell, Major Justin M. Magula Integrated Research Project by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Center for Strategic Leadership "Recent Russian aggression in Ukraine has reenergized military strategists and senior leaders to evaluate the role of strategic Landpower. American leadership in the European theater has mobilized allies and partners to reconsider force postures for responding to possible aggression against NATO members. Although Russian revisionist activity remains a threat in Europe, the challenges in the Pacific for strategic Landpower must also be considered. At the same time, the homeland, the Arctic, climate change, and the results of new and emerging technology also challenge the application of strategic Landpower..."

What Ukraine Taught NATO About Hybrid Warfare Sarah J. Lohmann Collaborative Study by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced the United States and its NATO partners to be confronted with the impact of hybrid warfare far beyond the battlefield. Targeting Europe’s energy security, Russia’s malign influence campaigns and malicious cyber intrusions are affecting global gas prices, driving up food costs, disrupting supply chains and grids, and testing US and Allied military mobility. This study examines how hybrid warfare is being used by NATO’s adversaries, what vulnerabilities in energy security exist across the Alliance, and what mitigation strategies are available to the member states."

Coercing Fluently: The Grammar of Coercion in the Twenty-first Century Dr C. A. Pfaff Monograph by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "To illustrate the logic and grammar of coercion, this analysis relies on decision-theory methods, such as game theory, that examine the strategic decision-making process in interactions with adversaries and partners. The intent here is not to offer predictive models of rational-actor behavior. Rather, the intent is to use game-theory and similar approaches to understand how coercion works better. This analysis considers competitive interactions between actors that have discrete and qualifiable, if not quantifiable, preferences and who behave rationally, though this analysis acknowledges the behavior that is considered rational is frequently informed by nonrational social, cultural, and psychological factors. Considering these competitive interactions allows one to identify “rules of thumb” that can orient and guide actors as they compete."

Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA – 2020 PLA Conference Papers Roger Cliff and Roy Kamphausen Conference Papers by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "Although the People’s Liberation Army is not yet a global expeditionary force on par with the US military, the former has nevertheless significantly expanded its ability to operate abroad. Through enhanced technological capabilities, robust relationships with foreign militaries, increased access to overseas military bases and dual-use facilities, and the implementation of major structural reforms, the People’s Liberation Army has built a more integrated joint force capable of conducting a wider and more complex array of missions. This volume advances the understanding of the People’s Liberation Army’s capability to conduct overseas missions by examining China’s military relations with Europe, Africa, and Latin America; the country’s military activities in the Indian Ocean, polar regions, and Pacific Island countries; and the emerging roles of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force and the Joint Logistic Support Force..."