Central Asia & Caucasus

Assessing the Collective Security Treaty Organization: Capabilities and Vulnerabilities Dr Richard Weitz Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) consists of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The CSTO’s membership has been stable, with the exception that Uzbekistan, which joined the organization in 2006, withdrew in 2012. The CSTO operates on the basis of the Collective Security Treaty (CST), a mutual defense pact signed in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on May 15, 1992. The CSTO’s initial declared purpose was to counter external aggression against members and to harmonize their foreign policy stances."

Unlocking India’s Strategic Potential in Central Asia Mr Roman Muzalevsky Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "India’s impressive economic growth over the last 2 1/2 decades has brought India’s role and interests to the forefront of global politics and statecraft. Importantly, it has put India into a comparative perspective with China, another aspiring Asian great power poised to stiffen competition for resources and influence worldwide. Both are resource-hungry and rapidly emerging powers seeking a new place and role in the global and regional orders. Both are also strategic rivals and consider their immediate neighborhood of Central Asia of growing strategic importance to their grand strategies. "

China’s Rise and Reconfiguration of Central Asia’s Geopolitics: A Case for U.S. Mr Roman Muzalevsky Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "China’s emergence as a global actor has questioned the position of the United States as the strongest power and the future of the Washington-led global order. But achieving the status of a truly global player wielding influence in all dimensions of power would require China, among other things, to leverage its regional influence in Central Asia. This region is increasingly representing China’s western leg of economic expansion and development, and is of a growing strategic importance for Beijing. It is also a region that should be of greater strategic importance to Washington, which seeks to preserve its leading position in the international system and ensure China’s peaceful integration in the global political, security, and economic architecture. "

Reassessing the Barriers to Islamic Radicalization in Kazakhstan Ms Zhulduz Baizakova, Mr Roger N McDermott Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The authors reassess the barriers to Islamic radicalization in the Republic of Kazakhstan. They provide crucial analysis and findings for policymakers seeking to engage with the country, while also presenting important insights into the historical and cultural impediments in the path of radicalizing its youth. Despite the proximity of the Central Asian Republics to Afghanistan and the Global War on Terrorism, unlike its neighbors, Kazakhstan has remained relatively stable and low risk in the face of international terrorism and extremism. This monograph examines some of the reasons as to why this is the case, proving that early judgements offered by commentators concerning Kazakhstan’s experience of domestic politically inspired violence in 2011-12, exaggerated the potential threat of growing Islamic radicalization. "

Central Asia's Shrinking Connectivity Gap: Implications for U.S. Strategy Mr Roman Muzalevsky Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Once sealed off from the rest of the world during the Soviet times, the states of Central Asia today are rapidly integrating with the global economy. The opening up of China in the 1980s, the demise of the Soviet Union a decade later, and the ongoing globalization have all served as grand forces facilitating this highly monumental development. The U.S. regional military involvement after September 11, 2001, and engagement by other actors have further enabled these countries to reconnect with the world, this time as sovereign units. Today, more than 2 decades after they gained their independence, the Central Asian countries, along with the rest of the world, face a great challenge and an opportunity—the rise of China, India, and resurgence of Russia. These neighboring powers are investing and facilitating internal and external links of the region and profoundly shaping the region’s external connectivity at the very time as the United States withdraws its troops from Afghanistan and sees a relative decline in its global and regional power and influence. "

Strategic Implications of the Evolving Shanghai Cooperation Organization Dr Andrew Monaghan, Mr Henry Plater-Zyberk Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in regional politics, and the significance of the organization for U.S. interests, is widely misunderstood. The organization is emphatically not a military bloc, and yet engages in joint activities which resemble military cooperation to U.S. eyes. It is, in theory, open to new members; but at present is highly unlikely to accept any. Its rhetoric firmly opposes U.S. presence and activity on the territory of member states, and yet individual member states leverage basing agreements with the United States to their advantage..."

Russia and the Caspian Sea: Projecting Power or Competing for Influence? Dr Tracey German Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This monograph examines Russia’s policy toward the Caspian Sea region as Moscow attempts to counterbalance growing American involvement within what it perceives to be its zone of privileged interest, focusing on the recent expansion of the Caspian Flotilla and the rationale behind it. Moscow has sought to counterbalance the growing involvement of other actors in the region, which has led to rising tension between Russia and its southern neighbors. The primary objectives of the research are to examine Russian perceptions of threat and security in the Caspian region and assess the implications for other actors. This monograph analyzes the drivers of the increasing competition for influence, focusing on developments within the energy sector, and assess the implications of Russia’s consolidation of its dominance for security and stability in the region. This issue is important because a clear understanding of Russian strategic thinking and threat perception in the Caspian Sea is vital in order to facilitate effective U.S. policy in the wider Caucasus and Central Asian region."

Russia's Counterinsurgency in North Caucasus: Performance and Consequences Dr Ariel Cohen Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This monograph examines the underlying issues behind the continuing low-level Islamist insurgency movement in the Russian North Caucasus. It begins by analyzing the history of relations between the Russian and the North Caucasus nations, focusing specifically on the process of subjugating the region by the Russian Empire. Since the 18th century, Russia has used brutal force to expand territorially to the Caucasus. The mistreatment of the North Caucasus continued after World War I and especially during and after World War II, when entire North Caucasus nations faced persecution and forcible deportations to remote parts of the Soviet Union—in which up to 30 percent of the exiles perished. Thus, the Russians planted the seeds of resentment and hatred toward them that persist to the present time."

Reforming the Police in Post-Soviet States: Georgia and Kyrgyzstan Dr Erica Marat Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "In most Soviet successor states, the police (militia) are among the least trusted government agencies. The police are frequently seen as representatives of the state who are allowed to persecute ordinary citizens, extort bribes, and protect the real criminals. This leads to cycles of mutual antagonism in which society does not expect the police to perform their function properly, and the police are unable to enforce state regulation of society. In the examples of Georgia and Kyrgyzstan in this monograph, Dr. Erica Marat examines which domestic processes will likely fail and which have a chance to succeed in changing the post-Soviet police from a punitive institution into a more democratic entity. "