Nuclear Deterrence
The leaders of five nuclear weapons states reaffirmed in 2022 their belief that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.” As long as nuclear weapons exist and disarmament remains impractical, however, the United States has committed itself to maintaining an arsenal that deters strategic attack, reassures allies and partners, and can achieve objectives if deterrence fails. The United States faces four challenges in pursuing its nuclear weapons goals.
Deterring a Strategic Attack
The first challenge is deterring a strategic attack when facing two major nuclear powers. China appears to be in the middle of a significant buildup of its nuclear arsenal, and Russia has modernized its large nuclear force. Unlike during the Cold War, in which the United States and the Soviet Union maintained a rough parity with each other, any one country is now much less likely to have more nuclear weapons than the other two combined. Hopefully, three-way deterrence will improve stability, since, no single country could expect to achieve victory against the other two.
On the other hand, the current multipolar problem could complicate several US nuclear planning goals, such as striking all relevant military targets, limiting retaliatory damage, ensuring the survivability of the US nuclear force, and sustaining deterrence against one adversary in the event of a war with the other. Other powers’ expansion of their nuclear arsenals, including adversaries like North Korea, and even allies like France, could further complicate American calculations. The United States may decide nuclear buildup is necessary to achieve its objectives, but a nuclear buildup could lead to a dangerous and expensive arms race. The United States may also seek to integrate more conventional forces into its nuclear planning and develop more tailored options.
The Nuclear Umbrella
The second challenge is maintaining credibility with allies. China’s nuclear buildup and Russia’s aggression in Europe have led to renewed questions about the credibility of America’s nuclear umbrella. American allies and adversaries may again ask the classic question of whether the United States would risk its own cities to protect its allies’ cities. Allies may demand extra reassurance or even seek their own deterrents. Poland, for instance, recently declared its willingness to host nuclear weapons on its soil, but the declaration elicited a strong protest from Russia. The United States must determine what combination of declarations and deployments can best achieve assurance, deterrence, and stability.
Servicemembers train on chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear scenarios to identify chemical threats with reconnaissance, decontaminating personnel, equipment, and casualties (Army National Guard photo by Private First Class Paris Hayes).
Limited Nuclear Strikes
The third challenge is preparing for the possibility an adversary will use limited nuclear strikes to end conventional conflicts. Nuclear-armed countries may be willing to engage in de-escalation strikes, using a small number of nuclear weapons to scare the United States or its allies into halting a military offensive. Russian statements during the Russia-Ukraine War have forced the US government to contemplate the possibility an adversary may use limited nuclear strikes. A limited nuclear attack would leave the United States with few good options: retaliating or continuing to fight would risk nuclear escalation, whereas suing for peace would require abandoning US military objectives. The United States must prepare to deter nuclear attacks and respond if the attacks occur, while also trying to avoid pushing adversaries into situations where they may conduct nuclear strikes in the first place.
Nonproliferation and Arms Control
The final challenge is the continued pursuit of nonproliferation and arms-control policies. Progress in negotiating arms-control agreements and strengthening nuclear nonproliferation appears to have halted. Instead, several countries seem to be expanding their nuclear arsenals. Furthermore, the risk of further nuclear proliferation has not gone away. The failure to manage the spread of nuclear weapons and the control of nuclear material could increase the possibility of nuclear war and terrorism. The renewed turmoil in the Middle East could increase the possibility of proliferation in that region. International cooperation on nuclear issues, however, has been difficult to achieve.
Conclusion
Nuclear deterrence will remain an enduring and critical issue for US national security. The challenge of deterring two major nuclear adversaries, the credibility of the nuclear umbrella, the possibility of a limited use of nuclear weapons, and continued arms-control and nonproliferation efforts all highlight the complex challenge of maintaining nuclear deterrence in the age of great-power competition. Nuclear weapons and their associated challenges must be considered when assessing the shifting strategic environment.
Photo Credit
Paris Hayes, Vigilant Guard 2024 [Image 3 of 13], April 30, 2024, DVIDS, link.