The Polar Regions
The polar regions continue to grow in importance, driven primarily by climate change and shifting alliances due to the Russia-Ukraine War. The effects of climate change have rendered the Arctic more relevant in recent years with promises of additional access to the region. The Northwest Passage is expected to become reliably ice-free in the summer by 2035, offering expanded commercial opportunities to ship goods between Asia and Europe. Climate change, however, reveals more than just a sea-lane. As the polar regions warm, potential sources of oil, natural gas, fisheries, rare-earth elements, and other resources become more accessible in polar areas. According to the Fifth National Climate Assessment, the Alaskan Arctic is warming two-to-three times faster than the global average. Thinning sea ice, receding glaciers, thawing permafrost, and volatile weather patterns are becoming more common in the US Arctic and in other areas in the circumpolar north and south. Moreover, the thawing permafrost is causing structural damage to military infrastructure and buildings in the circumpolar north.
The Russia-Ukraine War and Russia’s gray-zone activities, including placing military bases in the Arctic, have affected the geopolitical balance of the region. Sweden and Finland have joined NATO, which places seven of the eight Arctic nations in an alliance against Russia. The People’s Republic of China now views itself as a near-Arctic nation, working to gain regional influence through its relationship with Russia.
Gray-zone activities have become more common in the northern and southern polar regions. In the remote polar regions, adversaries increasingly use lawfare, information operations with critical stakeholders, questionable development efforts with local populations, and other activities to gain strategic advantages. For instance, Russia has placed several military bases in the Arctic. Antarctica has long been an exemplar of peaceful scientific research. Still, gray-zone activities in Antarctica have escalated because of the growing potential access to resources due to polar warming.
A US soldier, attached to 1st Battalion, 5th Infantry Regiment, equips snow shoes during Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center 24-02 at Donnelly Training Area, Alaska (US Army photo by Private First Class Elijah Magaña).
Recent Army exercises and experiments have explored several critical aspects of polar and extreme-cold-weather operations. Army Arctic Dominance Wargame 2.0 identified Army capability and capacity gaps, areas affecting critical infrastructure and essential resources protection, and Army homeland-defense requirements as a part of a Joint Force supporting United States Northern Command. Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center rotation 24-02, in February 2024, tested the capability of a Joint and combined force to operate in an extreme cold-weather environment. The exercise included deploying units north of the Arctic Circle, interacting with indigenous populations, and experimenting with Arctic-specific equipment under development.
In partnership with United States Northern Command, the Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska, continues to increase its capacity. The center’s mission includes researching Arctic security to advance the region’s Department of Defense security priorities. The center recently launched the School of Arctic and Climate Security Studies and the Journal of Arctic and Climate Security Studies. The center’s efforts have increased the Department of Defense’s educational engagement in the region. How the polar regions will impact relations among the great powers is unclear; still, increased access to the areas must be accounted for when assessing the strategic environment.
Photo Credit
Elijah Magaña, JPMRC 24-02 - Troop Movement Preparation [Image 4 of 10], February 15, 2024, DVIDS, link.