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July 25, 2024

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

The Profession

Romanian Commanding General of Headquarters Multinational Corps South-East (HQ MNC-SE) Dan Cristain-Daniel (pictured) and other senior military officers attend a war-fighting symposium at HQ MNC-SE in Sibiu, Romania (US Army photo by Specialist Joshua Maxie).


The profession faces many challenges, some articulated in the US Army War College’s 2023 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment. The Army and its sister services, the Joint Force, and the defense enterprise must continue to clarify the scope and depth of the military professions’ expert knowledge and negotiate with civilian leaders to define and enact appropriate jurisdictions of practice. Many of the challenges identified in recent years remain important, including:

  • increasingly assertive strategic challengers;
  • the changing character of war due to emerging technologies and recent experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan;
  • strategic ineffectiveness in recent conflicts;
  • emerging societal norms, some of which conflict with military professional norms;
  • political polarization and the politicization of the military itself;
  • growing societal rejection of professionalism, which has affected the military and other professions (for example, public health and law enforcement); and
  • how to define the military in relation to other national security–related professions and communities of practice.

Contemporary events such as the continued Russia-Ukraine War and the violent clash in Israel that exploded following the Hamas terrorist attacks on October 7, 2023, have reinforced the significance of several challenges, including the changing character of war, especially concerning advanced technology such as missiles, air and maritime drones, and the expanding importance of the space and cyber domains. Recent events have also highlighted persistent difficulties in achieving strategic aims against irregular forces that continue to confound American and allied and partnered armed forces in places such as Gaza, Somalia, Syria, Yemen, and the Sahel region.

Given the external challenges to the military profession remain unchanged, examining more recent impacts on the internal jurisdictions for developing expertise and the humans responsible for applying such expertise, particularly within the US Army, is worthwhile.

In September 2023, General Randy A. George took over as the Chief of Staff of the Army. George has declared focus areas in war fighting, delivering combat-ready formations, promoting continuous transformation, and strengthening the profession. His focus areas span the defense enterprise. Internally, the focus areas place a premium on leaders to reconcile and balance the complex demands civilian stakeholders place upon the Army and the other services to meet national security–policy ends. Key questions and challenges for the Army include the following.

  • What does the Army need from the nation to be ready to fight and win? To what extent is the industrial base ready to provide materiel in the event of a large-scale combat operation? What is the readiness level of the various entities the Army and the Joint Force might rely upon, such as the auxiliaries (for example, the Civil Reserve Air Fleet and US Merchant Marine), the Selective Service System, and civil defense apparatuses?
  • How should we define war fighting in the current era? How should we understand the expertise, skills, competencies, organizations, and culture needed for war fighting that, most importantly, effectively contribute to war-winning outcomes?
  • How do the contemporary demands of modern war fighting affect who can serve in the armed forces?
  • How has combat changed? If violence primarily defines combat, how do gray-area activities related to cyber, space, and information fit into modern conceptions of war fighting and war winning?
  • What are the formations (that is, the units, organizations, and teams) that deliver effective outcomes? Given the many advanced capabilities the private sector develops, designs, and deploys (for example, business, industry, and academia), how clear or blurry are the lines between military and civilian capabilities and their national security contributions?
  • How do we meet the imperative to transform continuously, commensurate with the tremendous dynamism throughout the strategic security environment highlighted in strategic estimates, such as the changing character of war, increasingly assertive strategic competitors, emerging societal norms, and an always-evolving ecosystem of national security–related professions?
  • To what extent are the Army’s systems of professional education, certification, and use and talent management enhancing and sustaining the Army’s domains of expert knowledge and ensuring the individual readiness of its professionals?
  • How effective and efficient are the Army’s systems of accountability and self-policing for establishing and enforcing standards, rewarding exemplary performance, and punishing or sanctioning unprofessional conduct and incompetence?

Our institutional focus on internal development and improvement should not take place in isolation from the Joint, interagency, and international partners without whom we can never deliver strategic success. We should continue to explore how to learn from and how to share our wisdom with like-minded partners nationally and internationally. Ultimately, effective professions must embrace the imperative to learn and adapt.

 

Photo Credit

Joshua Maxie, V Corps Participates in a Warfighting Symposium in Sibiu [Image 4 of 6], April 17, 2024, DVIDS, link.