Africa: The United States Africa Command Area of Operations
A 1st Battalion, 175th Infantry Regiment, Maryland National Guardsman scans for security threats during a dry-fire situational training exercise lane with Senegalese soldiers as part of the African Lion 2024 exercise in Dodji, Senegal (US Army Reserve photo by Sergeant First Class Nicholas J. De La Pena).
The African continent is marred by challenges ranging from a succession of recent military coups to governance issues to the growing threat of violent extremist organizations (VEOs). Africa also faces nontraditional security challenges such as climate change, uncontrolled urbanization, famine, limited economic opportunities coupled with a growing youth population, and mass migration. In 2023, VEOs continued to take advantage of weak governance, failed states, and ungoverned areas, resulting in increased violence in the Sahel and Somalia. The eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, and Sudan have also experienced an upsurge in violence and instability in 2024 as conflicts in these regions remain unresolved. The Sahel, Eastern African, and Central African regions all have unique challenges, which, coupled with governance difficulties, contribute to the broader complexity of the continent’s security landscape.
The Situation in the Sahel
Deep-rooted issues, including poor governance, corruption, poverty, and local grievances, plague the Sahel region. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2024 report, the Sahel accounts for more than half of global terrorism deaths, with terrorism-related fatalities in Burkina Faso increasing by 68 percent from 2023.10 Recent military coups have complicated Western efforts to counter VEO threats in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. Newly emplaced authorities have broken their security partnerships with France and other Western nations while increasing security cooperation with the Russian government and Russian private military companies. Niger’s decision to dissolve its security arrangements with the United States and remove US forces from the country further hampers Western efforts to counter VEO operations in the region. In the coming years, VEOs may seek to capitalize on the security vacuum left by the termination of the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali and the withdrawal of Western security providers by expanding VEO operations and threatening more stable coastal Western African states.
Engagements in Eastern Africa
In Eastern Africa, the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, two rival military factions vying for control of the country, enters its second year with no signs of de-escalation. The Rapid Support Forces, under the control of General Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, made significant military gains in 2023, forcing the Sudanese Armed Forces, under the control of General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, to retreat from cities near the capital, Khartoum, and in the western region of Darfur. The Sudanese Armed Forces regained partial control of the capital, but Khartoum remains a contested area as both sides vie for dominance. International efforts from the United States have failed to put an end to the conflict, as each side receives foreign support, which has prolonged the war. The ongoing conflict has left the nation on the verge of widespread famine, millions of people are in dire need of immediate humanitarian assistance, and the fighting has forced millions more to flee their homes. The conflict’s consequences extend beyond Sudan’s borders, with potential implications for regional stability, refugee crises, and other humanitarian and security issues.
Somalia reclaimed the top spot on the Fragile States Index in 2023 with little optimism about improving in the near future.11 The Somali National Army is embracing its increased role in Somalia’s security as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia prepares for its planned withdrawal by the end of 2024. As Somalia prepares for its upcoming elections, al-Shabaab’s efforts to undermine the government’s legitimacy are a genuine concern. At the same time, the Somali National Army’s ability to assume full responsibility for security remains unclear. The Somali National Army’s ability to ensure a fair and democratic process is of particular concern, as the success of Somalia’s upcoming elections will determine the country’s future trajectory.
Since 2021, military intervention in Mozambique by the Southern African Development Community mission in Mozambique and the Rwanda Defence Force has suppressed an insurgency in the northern Cabo Delgado Province by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria–Mozambique. The insurgency halted a multibillion-dollar liquified natural gas project in the province with the potential to transform the impoverished country’s economy. Mozambique’s economy is weak but strategically important, known for its abundance of natural gas reserves, critical minerals, and proximity to the Mozambique Channel, a principal global maritime shipping route.12
Concerns in Central Africa
In Central Africa, renewed fighting between armed groups and the Congolese military in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo threatens to exacerbate an already-troubled security situation. The planned withdrawal of the UN peacekeeping mission by the end of 2024 and the withdrawal of the East African Community force in late 2023 may leave a security vacuum the Congolese military, with the assistance of the newly deployed Southern African Development Community mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, may be unable to fill. Still, a military solution alone cannot resolve the governance and economic problems of the region, as is the case in many parts of Africa.
African Governance
Governance across the African continent varies widely, as some countries are progressively advancing democratic processes whereas others suffer from devastating setbacks. In countries such as Botswana, Cabo Verde, Ghana, Mauritius, and Senegal, peaceful transitions of power are an encouraging sign democratic values are entrenched in society and governments respect their citizens’ votes. Countries such as Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Niger, and South Sudan, however, are beset by entrenched autocratic leaders or military juntas with little regard for the democratic process or human rights. In 2024, 19 African countries will hold presidential or general elections. Up to half of the African elections in 2024 may lack competitiveness due to entrenched incumbents’ control of the electoral process. In other elections, such as in South Africa, the power shift could lead to a transition from single-party rule to a multiparty system.13
Conclusion
The African continent is complex and deeply entrenched in security challenges. Political instability, military coups, VEOs, famine, mass migration, and strategic competition are just a few factors contributing to the continent’s security landscape. Although some countries are making progress in addressing security issues, others are struggling to find stability and are facing deteriorating security situations. The coming years are crucial for the United States and its partner nations’ efforts to address regional challenges and ensure a more stable and prosperous future for the continent.
Endnotes
- “7 Key Findings from the Global Terrorism Index 2024,” Vision of Humanity (website), n.d., https://www.visionofhumanity.org/7-key-findings-from-the-global-terrorism-index-2024/. Return to text.
- Fragile States Index, Fragile States Index Annual Report 2023 (Washington, DC: Fund for Peace, 2023). Return to text.
- US Department of State (DOS), Integrated Country Strategy: Mozambique (Washington, DC: DOS, April 1, 2022), https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ICS_AF_Mozambique_Public.pdf. Return to text.
- Joseph Siegle and Candace Cook, “Africa’s 2024 Elections: Challenges and Opportunities to Regain Democratic Momentum,” Africa Center for Strategic Studies (website), accessed January 17, 2024, updated on June 12, 2024, https://africacenter.org/spotlight/2024-elections/. Return to text.
Photo Credits
Nicholas J. De La Pena, US, Netherlands Conduct Dry-Fire Exercise with Senegal [Image 7 of 17], May 22, 2024, DVIDS, link.