Europe: The United States European Command Area of Operations
Security in Europe—a region vital to US economic, political, and military interests—remains unstable due to three main factors. First, Russia persists in its brutal war in Ukraine and its efforts to promote instability across the continent. Second, major European economies face ongoing economic headwinds and other hurdles that frustrate the economies’ ability to respond to security challenges more robustly. Third, the comments and known policy preferences of some American political leaders have generated serious concerns about the US commitment to NATO as well as the transatlantic relationship more broadly.
The Russia-Ukraine War
US Infantry soldiers with Headquarters and Headquarters “Crusher” Company, 1st Battalion, 187th Infantry Regiment “Leader Rakkasans,” 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), supporting 3rd Infantry Division, wait for further instruction during a force-on-force exercise near Tapa, Estonia (US Army photo by Specialist Trey Gonzales).
Regarding the Russia-Ukraine War, both encouraging and troubling indicators prevent knowing in what direction events will unfold. On the one hand, at the broadest level, Russia remains a pariah, at least among Western-oriented countries in Europe and beyond. At a more operational level, most analysts assess Russian Landpower has suffered a devastating blow over the last two years—most notably in terms of casualties among experienced, well-trained troops and junior leaders and in terms of equipment stocks. Meanwhile, in the economic and information domains, Europe has maintained and strengthened sanctions against Russia and pushed back against Moscow’s efforts to meddle in domestic European affairs through hybrid operations and election interference. Finally, Ukraine has managed to endure the long delay in US military assistance with little territorial loss while also approving a politically difficult mobilization of military manpower.
But several reasons for pessimism exist. Vladimir Putin’s reelection in early 2024, the assassination and suppression of opposition figures at home and abroad, and the enduring crackdown on political and civil rights in Russia indicate an increasingly personalist, highly centralized dictatorship is forming in Moscow. Academic research indicates such regimes are more insular, risk tolerant, and aggressive than others.
Economic Challenges
Despite Western efforts to isolate Russia economically, Moscow is skillfully leveraging serious gaps to benefit its military and maintain social stability. The Russian military is also showing some troubling signs of stronger resilience and faster-than-expected reconstitution, maintaining significant quantitative advantages over Ukraine. Russia remains aggressive in its efforts to employ sabotage, espionage, and disinformation to curtail Western support for Ukraine.
Europe’s wherewithal to maintain and build upon its strong support for Ukraine in humanitarian, financial, and military terms and Europe’s ability to compete more broadly with Russia as well as China remain unclear, given continued sluggish economic growth; persistent shortcomings in European defense-industrial capacity, policies, and regulations; and the uncertain implications of significant political change. In terms of economic strength, stagnation characterized the larger European economies through the end of 2023, and growth across the euro zone in 2024 is expected to be an anemic 0.5 percent. The only significant silver lining is inflation is likely to drop closer to 2 percent. Without an expanding economic pie, the funds devoted to defense and deterrence are unlikely to grow significantly. More NATO Allies than ever meet the 2 percent defense-investment pledge. At the same time, the 2 percent spending level’s inability to fulfill the Alliance’s plans while simultaneously assisting Ukraine is evident.
Even if the funding were available, Europe would remain hampered by defense-industrial policy choices made decades ago, resulting in a limited productive capacity, dependence on foreign sales, and a shrunken skilled labor force. The fact most Allies cannot direct defense-industry priorities during peacetime, and many cannot engage in long-term contracts that would incentivize industry to add productive capacity, compounds the funding problem.
European elections have also created another degree of uncertainty. June EU parliamentary elections saw the far right—typically friendly toward Moscow—make big gains. Although the EU parliament has little authority over defense and security matters, the political winds that aided the far right will influence governments and decisionmakers across the continent. One immediate impact was French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for snap elections in France. Although the far right did not come to power, they fared better than ever and have set the stage for a heated presidential contest in 2027. Until then, the upheaval in French politics will complicate Macron’s remaining years in office. Meanwhile, across the Channel, the Labour Party secured a resounding victory in the United Kingdom, ending 14 years of Tory rule. Although historical trends indicate this situation could mean a slightly higher British defense budget, the new government is expected to focus more heavily on domestic issues in an effort to strengthen a listless UK economy and raise living standards.
US Commitment to NATO
Overshadowing all events in Europe is another set of elections—those in the United States. Recent political discourse has raised questions in Europe about the strength and durability of the US commitment to its treaty obligations and America’s willingness to partner with Europe to confront threats to the transatlantic community more broadly. Shifting perspectives on support for Ukraine among some US lawmakers have added to concerns across Europe about future US support.
From Europe’s perspective, a potentially unreliable—or even hostile, at least in the economic realm—United States spells real trouble. Yet, ironically, if Washington pushes Europe away and essentially allows Europe to become contested terrain vis-à-vis Russia (and China), the United States is more likely to get drawn into European security affairs eventually and at a much greater cost to Americans. The United States is likely to become involved because the European economy remains vital to the American way of life. As three system-wide wars in the twentieth century (World War I, World War II, and the Cold War) attest, Washington would likely not remain on the sidelines indefinitely if Europe descends into chaos.
Conclusion
European security remains strategically essential for the United States. But European security is in question as the region faces an ongoing military crisis, economic challenges, and concerns about a US leadership transition. The European theater will continue to be a significant component of a broader US Department of Defense strategy as an object of vital interest and a means of pursuing other US goals across the globe. Military planners should understand the challenges confronting the region and the associated political nuances to navigate the uncertain European environment.
Photo Credit
Trey Gonzales, 1st Bn., 187th IN Participates in Force on Force Exercise with NATO Allies [Image 8 of 9], April 13, 2024, DVIDS, link.