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July 24, 2024

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment

By the US Army War College Press

2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security EnvironmentStrategic Research and Analysis Department


The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment sets the foundation for cutting-edge research to understand the ever-evolving security environment domestically and internationally. Competition with the People’s Republic of China continues to dominate the strategic narrative, with global implications for US national interests. The Russia-Ukraine War and the deteriorating situation in the Middle East, however, present immediate and political challenges that will undoubtedly influence US military efforts abroad. At the same time, the United States faces domestic challenges in navigating civil-military relations, and the Army is working diligently to overcome institutional hurdles. The United States published its first National Defense Industry Strategy in January 2024, focusing on resilient supply chains, workforce readiness, flexible acquisition, and economic deterrence. Additionally, the Army released the 2024 white paper “Army Force Structure Transformation,” which lays the groundwork for creating new capabilities, initiates new recruitment modernization efforts, and justifies challenging personnel reductions across the force. Finally, the prevalence of competition in new and maturing arenas (such as space and the polar regions) may impact a delicate balance among the great powers. This balance, and the potential relative advantage the United States maintains over its adversaries, is further challenged by emerging technologies, many of which have yet to realize their impact on defense operations.
 

Front Matter

Foreword

Introduction

Theme 1: Regional Challenges and Opportunities

Asia: The United States Indo-Pacific Command Area of Operations

Europe: The United States European Command Area of Operations

The Middle East and Central Asia: The United States Central Command Area of Operations

North America: The United States Northern Command Area of Operations

Central and South America and the Caribbean: The United States Southern Command Area of Operations

Africa: The United States Africa Command Area of Operations

Theme 2: Domestic Challenges

Civil-Military Relations

Strengthening the US Defense-Industrial Ecosystem

Theme 3: Institutional Challenges

The Profession

The Force

The Strategy

Theme 4: Challenges to the US Strategic Advantage

The Polar Regions

The Space Domain

Emerging Technology

Nuclear Deterrence


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Strategic Research Topics: A Compendium to the 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security EnvironmentStrategic Research Topics: A Compendium to the 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment


This list of strategic issues offers insight into the particularized matters impacting defense organizations. Senior leaders across the highest echelons of Army and Department of Defense organizations provided input. This list and the narrative found in SSI’s 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment will help focus the research community on topics important to the Army.

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Keywords: 
Asia, People’s Republic of China (PRC), People’s Liberation Army, Xi Jinping, strategic competition, Indo-Pacific, Eurasia, Russia, Ukraine, arms control, arms race, Europe, NATO, military budget, European security, Middle East, North Africa, rebalancing partnerships, Iran, Israel, Hamas, Saudi Arabia, Houthi, Latin America, Caribbean, strategic access, migration, terrorism, sub-Saharan Africa, Africa, democratic backsliding, military coups, civil war, protracted conflict, civil-military relations, civilian control, defense industrial base, defense contractors, defense budget, smart weapons, leader development, military profession, professional military education, recruiting, retention, all-volunteer force, logistics, contested logistics, large-scale combat operations, survivability, polar regions, Arctic, climate change, natural resources, space, Space Force, Joint Force, artificial intelligence, technology, machine learning, nuclear deterrence, nuclear proliferation; Chief of Staff of the Army, Headquarters Department of the Army (HQDA), landpower, multidomain operations (MDO), Defense Support of Civilians (DSCA), critical infrastructure, Command and Control (C2), homeland defense, domestic, training, US Army Pacific (USARPAC), US Army North (USARNORTH), US Army South (USARSOUTH), US Army Cyber (USARCYBER), US Space Command (USSPACECOM), Joint Staff, US Army Europe and Africa (USAREUR-AF)