Europe & Russia

The Future Role of Strategic Landpower Dr. Gregory L. Cantwell, Major Justin M. Magula Integrated Research Project by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Center for Strategic Leadership "Recent Russian aggression in Ukraine has reenergized military strategists and senior leaders to evaluate the role of strategic Landpower. American leadership in the European theater has mobilized allies and partners to reconsider force postures for responding to possible aggression against NATO members. Although Russian revisionist activity remains a threat in Europe, the challenges in the Pacific for strategic Landpower must also be considered. At the same time, the homeland, the Arctic, climate change, and the results of new and emerging technology also challenge the application of strategic Landpower..."

What Ukraine Taught NATO About Hybrid Warfare Sarah J. Lohmann Collaborative Study by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced the United States and its NATO partners to be confronted with the impact of hybrid warfare far beyond the battlefield. Targeting Europe’s energy security, Russia’s malign influence campaigns and malicious cyber intrusions are affecting global gas prices, driving up food costs, disrupting supply chains and grids, and testing US and Allied military mobility. This study examines how hybrid warfare is being used by NATO’s adversaries, what vulnerabilities in energy security exist across the Alliance, and what mitigation strategies are available to the member states."

Coercing Fluently: The Grammar of Coercion in the Twenty-first Century Dr C. A. Pfaff Monograph by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "To illustrate the logic and grammar of coercion, this analysis relies on decision-theory methods, such as game theory, that examine the strategic decision-making process in interactions with adversaries and partners. The intent here is not to offer predictive models of rational-actor behavior. Rather, the intent is to use game-theory and similar approaches to understand how coercion works better. This analysis considers competitive interactions between actors that have discrete and qualifiable, if not quantifiable, preferences and who behave rationally, though this analysis acknowledges the behavior that is considered rational is frequently informed by nonrational social, cultural, and psychological factors. Considering these competitive interactions allows one to identify “rules of thumb” that can orient and guide actors as they compete."

Enabling a More Externally Focused and Operational PLA – 2020 PLA Conference Papers Roger Cliff and Roy Kamphausen Conference Papers by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "Although the People’s Liberation Army is not yet a global expeditionary force on par with the US military, the former has nevertheless significantly expanded its ability to operate abroad. Through enhanced technological capabilities, robust relationships with foreign militaries, increased access to overseas military bases and dual-use facilities, and the implementation of major structural reforms, the People’s Liberation Army has built a more integrated joint force capable of conducting a wider and more complex array of missions. This volume advances the understanding of the People’s Liberation Army’s capability to conduct overseas missions by examining China’s military relations with Europe, Africa, and Latin America; the country’s military activities in the Indian Ocean, polar regions, and Pacific Island countries; and the emerging roles of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force and the Joint Logistic Support Force..."

China, Europe and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security John R. Deni, Chris Alden, Erik Brattberg, Roger Cliff, Mark Duckenfield, R. Evan Ellis, Nicholas Nelson, Lauren Speranza Collaborative Study by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has unleashed an immense shock to the global economy. In Europe, gross domestic product has fallen, and unemployment has risen. China might take advantage of the crisis—just as it did in the wake of the global financial crisis a decade ago. As part of its broader national security strategy, China might again use its sovereign wealth fund, government-affiliated companies, and nominally private Chinese firms to provide necessary liquidity in Europe. In doing so, Beijing could take advantage of Europe’s economic difficulties to obtain sensitive technologies, build soft power, and acquire militarily significant infrastructure."

Korean War Biological Warfare Allegations Against the United States: A Playbook for the Current Crisis in Ukraine Conrad C. Crane Information Paper by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The recent accusations from Russia about American preparedness to launch biological warfare from Ukraine have an historical precedent from the Korean War, and can provide some insights about the intent of the allegations. Intense negotiations to end the Korean War began in mid 1951 as the front stalemated. With major ground offensives no longer an option, each side developed a different approach to coerce desired political outcomes at the peace table. The main sticking point became repatriation of prisoners of war. For UN forces, their primary coercive tool became American airpower, in an extensive bombing campaign that eventually laid waste to most of North Korea."

Human Security in U.S. Military Operations: A Primer for DOD Sarah Petrin PKSOI Paper by US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "The U.S. Army has always worked among people in areas of conflict. In recent times, the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are wrestling with what human security means, how military operations impact it, and what can be done to mitigate the harm. This primer is published to inform those within DOD working in this area, whether commanders, planners or curious soldiers and civilians. If we have learned nothing else in the past 20 years of war and its aftermath, it should be that the human domain is complex. If we fail to get our efforts right in these areas, we may well have tactical successes and strategic failure."

A Hard Look at Hard Power: Assessing the Defense Capabilities of Key US Allies and Security Partners—Second Edition Mr Gary J Schmitt Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "In a world where the United States faces two major revisionist powers—Russia and China—and additional security threats from Iran, North Korea, and jihadist terrorists, a critical edge for the United States is its global network of allies and strategic partners. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy notes, 'Alliances and partnerships are crucial to our strategy, providing a durable asymmetric strategic advantage that no competitor or rival can match.' "

Striking the Balance: US Army Force Posture in Europe, 2028—A Study Sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of the Army COL J.P. Clark, Dr C. A. Pfaff Document US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This study takes on one of the most difficult strategic decisions the Army faces today: how to plan for an uncertain and volatile future. In the context of Army force posture in Europe, these decisions are complicated by limited resources and by an evolving adversary that can employ asymmetric means to neutralize the impact of investments the Army makes today. In an effort to ensure Army capabilities endure over the long term and prevail in the event of conflict, the Army is implementing multidomain operations (MDO), which describes how the Army can compete with or, if necessary, defeat, an adversary across all domains, as part of the Joint Force. Conceived this way, MDO is more than simply Joint operations. MDO describes how the Army will fight alongside the other services in the air, land, sea, space, and cyber domains."