Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists, and Decision Makers, The Proteus Monograph Series, Volume 2, Issue 5

  • October 17, 2008
  • Noel Hendrickson

Counterfactual reasoning is the process of evaluating conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences. This monograph discusses the need for a comprehensive system of counterfactual reasoning to establish whether underlying assumptions are plausible. Such a system would have immense potential for analytic transformation as it would unite or replace a series of existing techniques of assessing alternate possibilities